{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba0393d6-bb14-46d9-a817-5049005a7aa6", "symbol": "SAAS", "name": "Microlise Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.499, "architecture_energy": 56.818, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.545, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 29.7, "upward_expansion": 10.78, "deceleration": 60.89, "rotation_down": 49.5, "downward_expansion": 84.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.3916, 0.393536, 0.421977, 0.473393 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.39, "trend_reference": 0.563881, "distance_from_trend": -0.308365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.017931, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.61687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.496744, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.531662, "excess_performance": -0.582897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.308365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.61687, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161535, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.564967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118615, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.531662, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1505207, "relative_activity": 1.675161, "balance": 0.368577, "dry_up": 1.47174, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106119, "annualized_volatility": 0.586226, "from_high_reference": -0.730217, "from_low_reference": 0.054054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.563881, "fair_value_reference": 1.017931, "structural_low": 0.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.033058, "positive_rate": 0.28, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.046846, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.422222, "worst_return": -0.282051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.116487, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.111558, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.411764, "worst_return": -0.38587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060065, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085958, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.123403, "worst_return": -0.559782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.274914, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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0.388, "volume": 710291, "typical_volume": 725239.2, "trend": 0.598394, "fair_value": 1.027895, "relative_strength": -58.153056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.586775, "energy": 63.559768, "activity_lines": [ 0.392811, 0.395477, 0.4379, 0.498862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.395, "volume": 2556794, "typical_volume": 830297.3, "trend": 0.581383, "fair_value": 1.022929, "relative_strength": -56.860556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.906725, "energy": 61.10198, "activity_lines": [ 0.393133, 0.394767, 0.429549, 0.48574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.39, "volume": 1505207, "typical_volume": 898544.5, "trend": 0.563881, "fair_value": 1.017931, "relative_strength": -56.496744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.499385, "energy": 56.817739, "activity_lines": [ 0.3916, 0.393536, 0.421977, 0.473393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }