{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba0d8c47-7993-4947-8a09-1fdd99456677", "symbol": "UBER", "name": "Uber Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.837, "architecture_energy": 20.799, "architecture_maturity": 11.29, "architecture_confidence": 92.781, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.56, "rotation_up": 23.4, "upward_expansion": 8.44, "deceleration": 40.07, "rotation_down": 45.98, "downward_expansion": 72.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.588, 72.103636, 72.395952, 72.743462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 75.02, "trend_reference": 73.829667, "distance_from_trend": 0.016123, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 73.455705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021296, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.97019, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003344, "excess_performance": -0.122281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059519, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04081, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037024, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003344, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.987106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147710862, "relative_activity": 1.646805, "balance": 0.987106, "dry_up": 1.135025, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072474, "annualized_volatility": 0.318772, "from_high_reference": -0.264438, "from_low_reference": 0.146919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.829667, "fair_value_reference": 73.455705, "structural_low": 65.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.006439, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.025977, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.30424, "worst_return": -0.150748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.082715, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.087604, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.448932, "worst_return": -0.196486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.158916, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.184675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.494893, "worst_return": -0.281607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.30424, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110162, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.101738, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006439, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 44.69, "volume": 82678962, "typical_volume": 113327255.45, "trend": 37.719333, "fair_value": 38.928205, "relative_strength": 23.881502, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"close": 72.46, "volume": 81260109, "typical_volume": 88208574.6, "trend": 75.104333, "fair_value": 72.979615, "relative_strength": -19.510113, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.468439, "energy": 16.932851, "activity_lines": [ 73.852667, 72.930182, 73.058857, 73.553462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.94, "volume": 93333636, "typical_volume": 87867485.0, "trend": 74.593667, "fair_value": 73.093718, "relative_strength": -25.663769, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.828235, "energy": 31.503191, "activity_lines": [ 71.214667, 71.716727, 72.375429, 72.962215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.36, "volume": 84921625, "typical_volume": 87449343.1, "trend": 74.177, "fair_value": 73.255, "relative_strength": -20.943907, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.304165, "energy": 37.196804, "activity_lines": [ 70.43, 71.473273, 72.156714, 72.689075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.02, "volume": 147710862, "typical_volume": 89695440.25, "trend": 73.829667, "fair_value": 73.455705, "relative_strength": -17.97019, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.837478, "energy": 20.799197, "activity_lines": [ 71.588, 72.103636, 72.395952, 72.743462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }