{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba13df73-59b0-47de-9726-736f5f0acb4f", "symbol": "QQQ", "name": "Invesco QQQ Trust", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.528, "architecture_energy": 26.771, "architecture_maturity": 64.913, "architecture_confidence": 93.363, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.97, "rotation_up": 28.44, "upward_expansion": 60.31, "deceleration": 85.47, "rotation_down": 33.86, "downward_expansion": 19.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 12166.8, 12324.628764, 12271.895243, 11936.564598 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12364.200195, "trend_reference": 11513.208073, "distance_from_trend": 0.073914, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9527.849907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29769, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.836878, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.178266, "excess_performance": 0.232933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073914, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0371, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.29769, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068369, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050284, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.178266, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.250271, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20268, "relative_activity": 0.349942, "balance": 2.250271, "dry_up": 0.779743, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03976, "annualized_volatility": 0.191383, "from_high_reference": -0.048907, "from_low_reference": 0.226851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11513.208073, "fair_value_reference": 9527.849907, "structural_low": 10078.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015027, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.08189, "worst_return": -0.065609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035401, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004991, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.238989, "worst_return": -0.097817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111475, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.065861, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.294311, "worst_return": -0.065879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018784, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065954, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", 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11847.589877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11935.5, "volume": 138451, "typical_volume": 57542.25, "trend": 11476.172038, "fair_value": 9488.458286, "relative_strength": 3.14585, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.108267, "energy": 25.515525, "activity_lines": [ 12150.689909, 12340.318004, 12224.896726, 11879.272459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12364.200195, "volume": 20268, "typical_volume": 57918.15, "trend": 11513.208073, "fair_value": 9527.849907, "relative_strength": 6.836878, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.527829, "energy": 26.770995, "activity_lines": [ 12166.8, 12324.628764, 12271.895243, 11936.564598 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }