{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba18f6f3-09a6-4479-ad4d-e143c03d3d47", "symbol": "HAR", "name": "Haranga Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.524, "architecture_energy": 81.138, "architecture_maturity": 58.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.537, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 11.4, "upward_expansion": 19.82, "deceleration": 37.4, "rotation_down": 75.31, "downward_expansion": 95.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0798, 0.088018, 0.102755, 0.110577 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.121983, "distance_from_trend": -0.344173, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.10792, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.258709, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.281389, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.397039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.344173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.258709, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.588711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.412814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.610618, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.181425, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2892379, "relative_activity": 0.786928, "balance": 0.181425, "dry_up": 0.912558, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197596, "annualized_volatility": 0.811353, "from_high_reference": -0.68, "from_low_reference": 0.15942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.121983, "fair_value_reference": 0.10792, "structural_low": 0.069, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.030075, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.044965, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011538, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031822, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.434783, "worst_return": -0.472973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.282051, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.351197, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.956522, "worst_return": -0.675, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06383, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.272727, "active": 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0.111667, 0.118545, 0.123179, 0.129446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.099, "volume": 739719, "typical_volume": 3855348.1, "trend": 0.138083, "fair_value": 0.109253, "relative_strength": -23.846632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.422142, "energy": 68.022947, "activity_lines": [ 0.1056, 0.114073, 0.120543, 0.126826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.091, "volume": 3678646, "typical_volume": 3829677.55, "trend": 0.136117, "fair_value": 0.109003, "relative_strength": -29.777274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.390267, "energy": 73.41504, "activity_lines": [ 0.098933, 0.108709, 0.117269, 0.123788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.088, "volume": 4376966, "typical_volume": 3815783.8, "trend": 0.13355, "fair_value": 0.10867, "relative_strength": -32.107696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.841547, "energy": 80.731442, "activity_lines": [ 0.093867, 0.103509, 0.113919, 0.120684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.082, "volume": 1791032, "typical_volume": 3663255.6, "trend": 0.130283, "fair_value": 0.108426, "relative_strength": -36.541777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.893418, "energy": 83.431695, "activity_lines": [ 0.0886, 0.098255, 0.110293, 0.117358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.071, "volume": 4356164, "typical_volume": 3718435.15, "trend": 0.125817, "fair_value": 0.108144, "relative_strength": -46.261713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.664245, "energy": 87.285571, "activity_lines": [ 0.081867, 0.091964, 0.105967, 0.113533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 2892379, "typical_volume": 3675530.95, "trend": 0.121983, "fair_value": 0.10792, "relative_strength": -41.281389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.523591, "energy": 81.137984, "activity_lines": [ 0.0798, 0.088018, 0.102755, 0.110577 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }