{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba192c50-dad3-4c62-bec9-ce2797d1cbd1", "symbol": "FCFS", "name": "FirstCash Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.769, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.285, "architecture_energy": 17.688, "architecture_maturity": 38.12, "architecture_confidence": 80.203, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.38, "rotation_up": 14.97, "upward_expansion": 41.79, "deceleration": 80.2, "rotation_down": 42.79, "downward_expansion": 35.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 203.983333, 209.907636, 214.667336, 211.107713 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 202.54, "trend_reference": 203.386958, "distance_from_trend": -0.004164, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 135.428987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.495544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.969479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117955, "excess_performance": -0.069498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004164, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101342, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.495544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117955, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519872, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2003607, "relative_activity": 0.979682, "balance": 0.519872, "dry_up": 1.166767, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087548, "annualized_volatility": 0.241405, "from_high_reference": -0.140079, "from_low_reference": 0.518821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 203.386958, "fair_value_reference": 135.428987, "structural_low": 175.38494, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.01397, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.019545, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.196141, "worst_return": -0.080912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.122635, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016519, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.203003, "worst_return": 0.019416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.189942, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009768, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266681, "worst_return": -0.04518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.508056, "energy": 23.37751, "activity_lines": [ 219.818, 221.673976, 218.080562, 210.097445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 213.61, "volume": 1812023, "typical_volume": 1918553.15, "trend": 199.355302, "fair_value": 133.3741, "relative_strength": 8.818729, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.152617, "energy": 18.308282, "activity_lines": [ 217.356667, 219.935636, 218.262294, 211.131542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 195.06, "volume": 3388836, "typical_volume": 2006987.3, "trend": 200.514087, "fair_value": 134.034224, "relative_strength": 0.500271, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.942188, "energy": 12.03087, "activity_lines": [ 209.464, 215.072727, 216.576517, 210.854425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 204.01, "volume": 2340441, "typical_volume": 2043220.2, "trend": 202.109964, "fair_value": 134.724378, "relative_strength": 4.104302, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.770186, "energy": 15.59485, "activity_lines": [ 206.687333, 212.409455, 215.718825, 211.079968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 202.54, "volume": 2003607, "typical_volume": 2045161.6, "trend": 203.386958, "fair_value": 135.428987, "relative_strength": -1.969479, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.285057, "energy": 17.688454, "activity_lines": [ 203.983333, 209.907636, 214.667336, 211.107713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }