{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ba23488a-08d5-4c00-9f45-97757d358a66",
    "symbol": "PALC",
    "name": "PACER FDS TR LUNT LARGE CAP MULTI FACT ALTERNATOR ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 66.518,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 38.215,
    "architecture_energy": 25.448,
    "architecture_maturity": 61.494,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.447,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.96,
        "rotation_up": 29.8,
        "upward_expansion": 58.8,
        "deceleration": 85.45,
        "rotation_down": 41.29,
        "downward_expansion": 24.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        56.348867,
        56.815631,
        56.489866,
        55.802064
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 57.7062,
    "trend_reference": 55.12944,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.04674,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 47.929042,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203992,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.716021,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.042975,
    "excess_performance": -0.08265,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.04674,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033321,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.203992,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009436,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03716,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005852,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042975,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.931742,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 52244,
      "relative_activity": 0.811787,
      "balance": 0.931742,
      "dry_up": 0.605298,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034243,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.148774,
      "from_high_reference": -0.034529,
      "from_low_reference": 0.17473
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 55.12944,
      "fair_value_reference": 47.929042,
      "structural_low": 50.619118,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.03416,
        "positive_rate": 0.727273,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.727273,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003178,
        "regime_survival": 0.545455,
        "best_return": 0.057836,
        "worst_return": -0.080085,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.042615,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017562,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.134194,
        "worst_return": -0.084399,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.103233,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020678,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.186019,
        "worst_return": -0.0046,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.173779,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.055151,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.288907,
        "worst_return": 0.058651,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.007525,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052665,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.014415,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036927,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00167,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.014421,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.084982,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031627,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031184,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.039274,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.059923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.016389,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041865,
        "active": true
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    "chart_path": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 46.787238,
        "relative_strength": -2.203619,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 47.460029,
        "relative_strength": -1.077572,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 39644,
        "typical_volume": 66862.35,
        "trend": 54.829695,
        "fair_value": 47.574411,
        "relative_strength": -3.880473,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.503674,
        "energy": 34.47454,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 55.29,
        "volume": 26990,
        "typical_volume": 64868.0,
        "trend": 54.917313,
        "fair_value": 47.682908,
        "relative_strength": -3.69764,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.823062,
        "energy": 18.764528,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 55.3874,
        "volume": 36942,
        "typical_volume": 63671.4,
        "trend": 55.015296,
        "fair_value": 47.797577,
        "relative_strength": -4.451904,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 23.714902,
        "energy": 21.186018,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.94304,
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          56.263879,
          55.628457
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 57.7062,
        "volume": 52244,
        "typical_volume": 64356.75,
        "trend": 55.12944,
        "fair_value": 47.929042,
        "relative_strength": -3.716021,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.215119,
        "energy": 25.447996,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}