{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba2c0380-b3bb-48ce-86be-29fb586d7ee5", "symbol": "600272", "name": "Shanghai Kai Kai Industry Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 70.22, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.169, "architecture_energy": 10.333, "architecture_maturity": 88.798, "architecture_confidence": 79.681, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.2, "rotation_up": 29.7, "upward_expansion": 21.25, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 20.93, "downward_expansion": 57.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.323333, 11.064525, 11.312606, 11.720765 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.97, "trend_reference": 12.353195, "distance_from_trend": 0.049931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.363036, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049095, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.535647, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054665, "excess_performance": -0.011461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049931, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087652, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002638, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005356, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153164, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054665, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932237, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37298095, "relative_activity": 2.6145, "balance": 0.932237, "dry_up": 1.60879, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070433, "annualized_volatility": 0.415788, "from_high_reference": -0.295109, "from_low_reference": 0.303518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.353195, "fair_value_reference": 12.363036, "structural_low": 9.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.016801, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.001351, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.733045, "worst_return": -0.146822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.03205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043375, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.496274, "worst_return": -0.093725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.201908, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.276784, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.675, "worst_return": -0.108896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 10.79, "volume": 12489741, "typical_volume": 11985209.9, "trend": 12.778528, "fair_value": 12.306619, "relative_strength": -19.658815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.982519, "energy": 64.330327, "activity_lines": [ 10.766201, 11.002404, 11.590289, 12.090794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.12, "volume": 23720464, "typical_volume": 12636399.55, "trend": 12.665862, "fair_value": 12.320515, "relative_strength": -11.563426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.322827, "energy": 53.612497, "activity_lines": [ 10.8768, 10.963753, 11.498452, 11.983792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.03, "volume": 18517221, "typical_volume": 12770800.6, "trend": 12.505862, "fair_value": 12.327551, "relative_strength": -20.602913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.141424, "energy": 56.18386, "activity_lines": [ 10.622387, 10.756556, 11.314948, 11.813737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.47, "volume": 12267345, "typical_volume": 12927112.75, "trend": 12.375195, "fair_value": 12.337662, "relative_strength": -16.912911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.496664, "energy": 51.778839, "activity_lines": [ 10.567655, 10.670267, 11.188634, 11.682391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.97, "volume": 37298095, "typical_volume": 14265862.5, "trend": 12.353195, "fair_value": 12.363036, "relative_strength": 0.535647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.168933, "energy": 10.333156, "activity_lines": [ 11.323333, 11.064525, 11.312606, 11.720765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }