{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba30c63e-85d1-4e2d-807e-1298d9e4397a", "symbol": "MGB", "name": "Mackenzie Core Plus Global Fixed Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.682, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.409, "architecture_energy": 55.175, "architecture_maturity": 24.532, "architecture_confidence": 91.58, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.72, "rotation_up": 11.56, "upward_expansion": 11.57, "deceleration": 38.7, "rotation_down": 63.58, "downward_expansion": 84.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.698599, 15.74137, 15.761991, 15.794737 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.74, "trend_reference": 15.845336, "distance_from_trend": -0.006648, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.298696, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028846, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.902481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013968, "excess_performance": -0.134389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006648, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003188, "read": "Falling" 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15.594092, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.002884, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.005111, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.044459, "worst_return": -0.054529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001339, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024293, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.026663, "worst_return": -0.071609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002683, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04618, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.033342, "worst_return": -0.094945, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 10455.0, "trend": 15.860228, "fair_value": 15.28082, "relative_strength": -10.789848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.923377, "energy": 41.076948, "activity_lines": [ 15.746782, 15.771299, 15.780986, 15.816697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.634, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 10495.0, "trend": 15.854146, "fair_value": 15.28956, "relative_strength": -10.080441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.855761, "energy": 59.555952, "activity_lines": [ 15.694527, 15.746193, 15.765877, 15.802101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.74, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 7945.0, "trend": 15.845336, "fair_value": 15.298696, "relative_strength": -11.902481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.409402, "energy": 55.175311, "activity_lines": [ 15.698599, 15.74137, 15.761991, 15.794737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }