{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba429dff-4ead-44aa-89d2-0f60be24f3a3", "symbol": "CITY", "name": "Club De Futbol Intercity Sad", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.832, "architecture_energy": 35.21, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.389, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.29, "rotation_up": 24.76, "upward_expansion": 4.09, "deceleration": 49.47, "rotation_down": 43.67, "downward_expansion": 75.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.031787, 0.032209, 0.034499, 0.037108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0306, "trend_reference": 0.042047, "distance_from_trend": -0.272237, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.126409, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.757929, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -64.957544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.524431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.272237, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.757929, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.649575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053323, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.306713, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85055043, "relative_activity": 3.367528, "balance": 1.306713, "dry_up": 1.941109, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231775, "annualized_volatility": 1.080869, "from_high_reference": -0.868103, "from_low_reference": 0.133333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.042047, "fair_value_reference": 0.126409, "structural_low": 0.027, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.123894, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.113859, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 15.904762, "worst_return": -0.546841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.3125, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.408887, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 5.220238, "worst_return": -0.504348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.547945, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.65637, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 7.839286, "worst_return": -0.616558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.034, "volume": 28475626, "typical_volume": 21214809.15, "trend": 0.04465, "fair_value": 0.128202, "relative_strength": -62.481504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.947157, "energy": 29.202336, "activity_lines": [ 0.033373, 0.033353, 0.035913, 0.038887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0297, "volume": 43949115, "typical_volume": 22277127.25, "trend": 0.043227, "fair_value": 0.127296, "relative_strength": -66.317019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.040915, "energy": 34.897966, "activity_lines": [ 0.032387, 0.032669, 0.03513, 0.037923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0306, "volume": 85055043, "typical_volume": 25257413.1, "trend": 0.042047, "fair_value": 0.126409, "relative_strength": -64.957544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.831783, "energy": 35.209783, "activity_lines": [ 0.031787, 0.032209, 0.034499, 0.037108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }