{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba49797d-c795-4a2e-8476-cb13ba6a24a3", "symbol": "002258", "name": "Lier Chemical Co.,LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.184, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.313, "architecture_energy": 21.831, "architecture_maturity": 3.789, "architecture_confidence": 61.839, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.25, "rotation_up": 52.08, "upward_expansion": 38.22, "deceleration": 35.96, "rotation_down": 18.11, "downward_expansion": 17.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.338, 13.924061, 13.481404, 13.775153 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.09, "trend_reference": 14.295805, "distance_from_trend": -0.014396, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.944545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287399, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.165882, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.208427, "excess_performance": -0.215827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013597, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172904, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001659, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237222, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208427, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.77288, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172480674, "relative_activity": 2.007421, "balance": 0.77288, "dry_up": 1.941136, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093238, "annualized_volatility": 0.449493, "from_high_reference": -0.219391, "from_low_reference": 0.235965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.295805, "fair_value_reference": 10.944545, "structural_low": 11.597928, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017095, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007351, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.080805, "worst_return": -0.06492, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.052665, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.069455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.016491, "worst_return": -0.088838, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.109737, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.209522, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203529, "worst_return": 0.015945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.552537, "energy": 19.988414, "activity_lines": [ 13.233333, 13.097821, 13.163892, 13.687245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.95, "volume": 127754308, "typical_volume": 78716425.0, "trend": 14.168138, "fair_value": 10.928409, "relative_strength": 2.945119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.489587, "energy": 12.218749, "activity_lines": [ 13.476, 13.292141, 13.194729, 13.674461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.9, "volume": 202837355, "typical_volume": 81732233.0, "trend": 14.261138, "fair_value": 10.943175, "relative_strength": 18.826587, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.443377, "energy": 31.333458, "activity_lines": [ 14.301333, 13.808265, 13.422519, 13.786195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.09, "volume": 172480674, "typical_volume": 85921516.85, "trend": 14.295805, "fair_value": 10.944545, "relative_strength": 0.165882, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.312642, "energy": 21.831341, "activity_lines": [ 14.338, 13.924061, 13.481404, 13.775153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }