{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba4b9f6c-15b7-46e0-9b96-6891d80b84fd", "symbol": "KEMQ", "name": "KRANESHARES TRUST EMERGING MKTS CONSUMER TECHNLGY INDX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.454, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.333, "architecture_energy": 24.743, "architecture_maturity": 33.64, "architecture_confidence": 68.785, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.09, "rotation_up": 38.47, "upward_expansion": 64.22, "deceleration": 84.65, "rotation_down": 26.74, "downward_expansion": 13.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.442513, 25.391518, 25.206852, 24.929336 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.16, "trend_reference": 24.908463, "distance_from_trend": 0.050245, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.793983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.391935, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.576099, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009259, "excess_performance": -0.116366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050245, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007247, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.391935, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055761, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009259, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12742, "relative_activity": 0.166603, "balance": 0.47889, "dry_up": 0.335987, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048176, "annualized_volatility": 0.272453, "from_high_reference": -0.081138, "from_low_reference": 0.222405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.908463, "fair_value_reference": 18.793983, "structural_low": 21.7901, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.010221, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.012134, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.30935, "worst_return": -0.117461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05184, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.051743, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.16636, "worst_return": -0.153666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044664, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012788, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.189687, "worst_return": -0.30013, 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18.648357, "relative_strength": -7.666206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.929752, "energy": 4.300001, "activity_lines": [ 25.080967, 25.205887, 24.97781, 24.821805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.34, "volume": 56338, "typical_volume": 77317.9, "trend": 24.91213, "fair_value": 18.717133, "relative_strength": -5.339822, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.513155, "energy": 6.855515, "activity_lines": [ 25.133407, 25.23012, 25.058712, 24.848829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.16, "volume": 12742, "typical_volume": 76481.3, "trend": 24.908463, "fair_value": 18.793983, "relative_strength": -5.576099, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.332934, "energy": 24.74308, "activity_lines": [ 25.442513, 25.391518, 25.206852, 24.929336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }