{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba4d160c-ce6e-40f8-91da-adb942959a70", "symbol": "AMBP3", "name": "Ambipar Participa\u00e7\u00f5es e Empreendimentos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.767, "architecture_energy": 43.862, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.37, "rotation_up": 24.12, "upward_expansion": 5.8, "deceleration": 56.78, "rotation_down": 54.1, "downward_expansion": 81.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.162667, 0.166364, 0.176857, 0.190495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.212667, "distance_from_trend": -0.247649, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.729072, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.972072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -93.172156, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.428571, "excess_performance": -0.371523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.247649, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149333, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.972072, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.931722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042268, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.428571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229855, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21008800, "relative_activity": 1.004764, "balance": 0.229855, "dry_up": 0.843338, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163462, "annualized_volatility": 0.452077, "from_high_reference": -0.989861, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.212667, "fair_value_reference": 5.729072, "structural_low": 0.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.039178, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.036403, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 1.092511, "worst_return": -0.614286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.048319, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.110663, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 3.230473, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.264101, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.301179, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 11.685632, "worst_return": -0.945287, "sufficient": true 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-95.291446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.064928, "energy": 50.554951, "activity_lines": [ 0.166, 0.171455, 0.186095, 0.201763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 7701200, "typical_volume": 22213575.0, "trend": 0.221667, "fair_value": 5.751969, "relative_strength": -94.797313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.919678, "energy": 52.24241, "activity_lines": [ 0.162667, 0.168727, 0.182429, 0.197527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.17, "volume": 19234200, "typical_volume": 21764630.0, "trend": 0.217333, "fair_value": 5.74003, "relative_strength": -93.922078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.706313, "energy": 46.340236, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.168364, 0.18, 0.194194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 21008800, "typical_volume": 20909195.0, "trend": 0.212667, "fair_value": 5.729072, "relative_strength": -93.172156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.766961, "energy": 43.861625, "activity_lines": [ 0.162667, 0.166364, 0.176857, 0.190495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }