{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba4ee291-b912-4700-a69b-66668e178307", "symbol": "BSA", "name": "BSA Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.012, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.245, "architecture_energy": 29.433, "architecture_maturity": 18.215, "architecture_confidence": 43.214, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.14, "rotation_up": 25.63, "upward_expansion": 19.33, "deceleration": 46.72, "rotation_down": 50.32, "downward_expansion": 47.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.296, 0.303727, 0.311, 0.316011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.28, "trend_reference": 0.303583, "distance_from_trend": -0.077683, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.481452, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.418426, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.484882, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.623188, "excess_performance": 0.559483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077683, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241227, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.418426, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.154849, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.725977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.623188, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.55694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 552966, "relative_activity": 0.950552, "balance": 0.55694, "dry_up": 1.078552, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135989, "annualized_volatility": 0.946433, "from_high_reference": -0.42268, "from_low_reference": 2.294118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.303583, "fair_value_reference": 0.481452, "structural_low": 0.175, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.029882, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.15, "worst_return": -0.913131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05401, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.15, "worst_return": -0.935354, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.665804, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.687728, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.858586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.717172, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.717548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.72807, "worst_return": -0.799483, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074324, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123711, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043689, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0199, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.16129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.909091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.58, "volume": 70260, "typical_volume": 232554.55, "trend": 0.600167, "fair_value": 1.36294, "relative_strength": 6.31841, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.33, "volume": 517962, "typical_volume": 905679.1, "trend": 0.289583, "fair_value": 0.487189, "relative_strength": 49.697171, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.263281, "energy": 10.725656, "activity_lines": [ 0.314667, 0.314727, 0.321786, 0.316317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.32, "volume": 1020274, "typical_volume": 702387.1, "trend": 0.295417, "fair_value": 0.485362, "relative_strength": 42.570909, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.846482, "energy": 11.1255, "activity_lines": [ 0.316667, 0.315727, 0.32031, 0.31828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.28, "volume": 418509, "typical_volume": 631828.9, "trend": 0.29975, "fair_value": 0.483311, "relative_strength": 20.442618, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.702529, "energy": 11.229822, "activity_lines": [ 0.304667, 0.309545, 0.31531, 0.317285 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.28, "volume": 552966, "typical_volume": 581731.55, "trend": 0.303583, "fair_value": 0.481452, "relative_strength": 15.484882, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.24484, "energy": 29.432548, "activity_lines": [ 0.296, 0.303727, 0.311, 0.316011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }