{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba4f7c5d-ed9c-4855-9bce-9ebe5cf4ed39", "symbol": "CSP", "name": "CSP Steel Center Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.538, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.259, "architecture_energy": 12.132, "architecture_maturity": 32.239, "architecture_confidence": 47.684, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.33, "rotation_up": 29.79, "upward_expansion": 19.53, "deceleration": 50.91, "rotation_down": 30.72, "downward_expansion": 33.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.431333, 0.427818, 0.45219, 0.453054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.44, "trend_reference": 0.448667, "distance_from_trend": -0.019316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.68859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.361013, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.115554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1, "excess_performance": -0.092325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02956, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.361013, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11127, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208269, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.034097, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1375700, "relative_activity": 0.847915, "balance": 3.034097, "dry_up": 1.373355, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103147, "annualized_volatility": 0.518198, "from_high_reference": -0.254237, "from_low_reference": 0.222222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.448667, "fair_value_reference": 0.68859, "structural_low": 0.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.135, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.168532, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.37, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.42, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.487483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.42, "worst_return": -0.42, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.45, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.3698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.45, "worst_return": -0.45, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.49, "positive_rate": 0.0, 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"tenure": "New", "return": -0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.32, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.15625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": 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-23.445946, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.227187, "energy": 45.788796, "activity_lines": [ 0.412, 0.43, 0.456857, 0.454129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.44, "volume": 2235000, "typical_volume": 1568855.0, "trend": 0.448, "fair_value": 0.693013, "relative_strength": -20.190724, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.743593, "energy": 20.003621, "activity_lines": [ 0.423333, 0.428545, 0.454667, 0.45357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.44, "volume": 1375700, "typical_volume": 1622450.0, "trend": 0.448667, "fair_value": 0.68859, "relative_strength": -19.115554, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.258549, "energy": 12.131511, "activity_lines": [ 0.431333, 0.427818, 0.45219, 0.453054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }