{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba5049cf-6453-428d-8586-0bee52aada6c", "symbol": "SRIJC", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Japan SRI PAB UCITS ETF Capitalisation", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.434, "architecture_energy": 72.976, "architecture_maturity": 38.395, "architecture_confidence": 72.471, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 72.34, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 63.05, "rotation_down": 17.17, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.651727, 30.293091, 29.434117, 28.884839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.521999, "trend_reference": 28.29203, "distance_from_trend": 0.114165, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.943293, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215035, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.423665, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.148593, "excess_performance": 0.095282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114165, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042537, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215035, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121817, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.074237, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028626, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148593, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.702847, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7995, "relative_activity": 0.485989, "balance": 0.702847, "dry_up": 0.972935, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023169, "annualized_volatility": 0.184186, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.228957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.29203, "fair_value_reference": 25.943293, "structural_low": 25.923, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.000293, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.012663, "regime_survival": 0.565217, "best_return": 0.064716, "worst_return": -0.099283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026302, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.018, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.017341, "worst_return": -0.090921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027624, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012369, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.0011, "worst_return": -0.120363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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29.956966, 29.320211, 28.545072, 28.216491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.614401, "volume": 15687, "typical_volume": 14882.15, "trend": 27.91318, "fair_value": 25.832705, "relative_strength": 9.531404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.170277, "energy": 92.377792, "activity_lines": [ 30.27402, 29.634484, 28.788462, 28.40022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.1478, "volume": 16097, "typical_volume": 15617.0, "trend": 28.045747, "fair_value": 25.861931, "relative_strength": 7.192166, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.101706, "energy": 87.512606, "activity_lines": [ 30.318427, 29.816113, 28.97989, 28.544389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.964001, "volume": 24244, "typical_volume": 16721.2, "trend": 28.16328, "fair_value": 25.898063, "relative_strength": 4.720149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.802111, "energy": 65.476018, "activity_lines": [ 30.251114, 29.929038, 29.140468, 28.668147 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.521999, "volume": 7995, "typical_volume": 16451.0, "trend": 28.29203, "fair_value": 25.943293, "relative_strength": 7.423665, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.43419, "energy": 72.975573, "activity_lines": [ 30.651727, 30.293091, 29.434117, 28.884839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }