{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba597414-94a3-4198-9aad-1f43adda5ca4", "symbol": "JGH", "name": "Nuveen Global High Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.381, "architecture_energy": 13.341, "architecture_maturity": 19.046, "architecture_confidence": 75.698, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.6, "rotation_up": 31.45, "upward_expansion": 48.91, "deceleration": 78.08, "rotation_down": 27.05, "downward_expansion": 26.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.521758, 12.52593, 12.534842, 12.469309 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.66, "trend_reference": 12.404214, "distance_from_trend": 0.020621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.05746, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144928, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.294323, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020533, "excess_performance": -0.105092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.144928, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02966, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082943, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020533, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031957, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256638, "relative_activity": 0.621193, "balance": 1.031957, "dry_up": 1.296492, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022679, "annualized_volatility": 0.094227, "from_high_reference": -0.01342, "from_low_reference": 0.09933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.404214, "fair_value_reference": 11.05746, "structural_low": 11.51611, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016191, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008105, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.099193, "worst_return": -0.061593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062903, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.019777, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.135439, "worst_return": -0.06527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037894, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.048785, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.187207, "worst_return": -0.124188, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057446, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", 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"close": 12.38, "volume": 452355, "typical_volume": 433865.8, "trend": 12.370632, "fair_value": 11.008522, "relative_strength": -6.736249, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.199455, "energy": 13.394298, "activity_lines": [ 12.441256, 12.515295, 12.502434, 12.4421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.52, "volume": 325563, "typical_volume": 417085.35, "trend": 12.38763, "fair_value": 11.033429, "relative_strength": -6.419346, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.378391, "energy": 11.417068, "activity_lines": [ 12.459278, 12.507801, 12.512851, 12.451737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.66, "volume": 256638, "typical_volume": 413137.6, "trend": 12.404214, "fair_value": 11.05746, "relative_strength": -8.294323, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.381218, "energy": 13.340722, "activity_lines": [ 12.521758, 12.52593, 12.534842, 12.469309 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }