{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba5bf8c6-a373-4992-9c30-ae8e7dfde598", "symbol": "NCNO", "name": "nCino Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.317, "architecture_energy": 42.906, "architecture_maturity": 14.786, "architecture_confidence": 53.736, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.48, "rotation_up": 64.96, "upward_expansion": 56.54, "deceleration": 24.9, "rotation_down": 17.78, "downward_expansion": 14.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.137333, 17.426182, 16.923619, 16.826989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.17, "trend_reference": 17.273, "distance_from_trend": 0.109825, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.803718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310524, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.114097, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056198, "excess_performance": -0.131255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139919, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07414, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056198, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.742924, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8776090, "relative_activity": 0.541963, "balance": 1.742924, "dry_up": 0.641092, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110294, "annualized_volatility": 0.57696, "from_high_reference": -0.434847, "from_low_reference": 0.38913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.273, "fair_value_reference": 27.803718, "structural_low": 13.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.021373, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.004523, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.232396, "worst_return": -0.280548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.127907, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.029874, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.32, "worst_return": -0.210299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039915, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.151026, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.281938, "worst_return": -0.240092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.20976, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.326191, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.325362, "worst_return": -0.350465, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068993, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023394, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.094006, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066551, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099026, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045392, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210369, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.277328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157609, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.5, "volume": 1948052, "typical_volume": 3600923.25, "trend": 27.159833, "fair_value": 49.238494, "relative_strength": -10.041262, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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-11.079088, "energy": 15.803912, "activity_lines": [ 17.101333, 16.422727, 16.462762, 16.763054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.56, "volume": 9886939, "typical_volume": 16044000.8, "trend": 17.693667, "fair_value": 27.940513, "relative_strength": -30.535655, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.393983, "energy": 15.767223, "activity_lines": [ 17.086667, 16.517636, 16.477762, 16.668989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.46, "volume": 12975152, "typical_volume": 16235316.55, "trend": 17.487333, "fair_value": 27.868718, "relative_strength": -22.026295, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.817979, "energy": 22.377756, "activity_lines": [ 17.588, 16.929091, 16.674952, 16.71843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.17, "volume": 8776090, "typical_volume": 16193167.95, "trend": 17.273, "fair_value": 27.803718, "relative_strength": -22.114097, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.317085, "energy": 42.906129, "activity_lines": [ 18.137333, 17.426182, 16.923619, 16.826989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }