{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba5e4bed-32bb-4000-afe8-de0964f77717", "symbol": "600690", "name": "Haier Smart Home Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.369, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.381, "architecture_energy": 23.615, "architecture_maturity": 32.346, "architecture_confidence": 54.28, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.74, "rotation_up": 43.66, "upward_expansion": 34.5, "deceleration": 47.1, "rotation_down": 14.69, "downward_expansion": 42.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.996, 21.337091, 21.059714, 21.541978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.93, "trend_reference": 22.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.025333, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.252837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095776, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.370028, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126643, "excess_performance": -0.083439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025333, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081785, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095776, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021574, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0837, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13252, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.713001, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201028492, "relative_activity": 0.954301, "balance": 1.713001, "dry_up": 1.192881, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053702, "annualized_volatility": 0.287833, "from_high_reference": -0.225362, "from_low_reference": 0.127506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.5, "fair_value_reference": 24.252837, "structural_low": 19.450001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.003733, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00893, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.093156, "worst_return": -0.062359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010263, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.070786, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.081944, "worst_return": -0.272131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049712, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.058601, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.00422, "worst_return": -0.212487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.071511, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066418, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.057742, "worst_return": -0.093152, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04947, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016049, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027487, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028672, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032677, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059839, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043185, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 22.045567, "volume": 155122045, "typical_volume": 148730958.95, "trend": 21.567986, "fair_value": 22.944567, "relative_strength": -0.61163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 21.808001, 21.137455, 20.986, 21.587699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.93, "volume": 201028492, "typical_volume": 210655220.8, "trend": 22.5, "fair_value": 24.252837, "relative_strength": -8.370028, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.381069, "energy": 23.614606, "activity_lines": [ 21.996, 21.337091, 21.059714, 21.541978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }