{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba63c23e-8243-4350-819b-53d3de09ab68", "symbol": "COF", "name": "Capital One Financial Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.668, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 65.834, "architecture_energy": 67.46, "architecture_maturity": 21.279, "architecture_confidence": 71.942, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.63, "rotation_up": 80.91, "upward_expansion": 60.57, "deceleration": 31.45, "rotation_down": 16.32, "downward_expansion": 18.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 3639.412028, 3573.591127, 3453.484489, 3425.958999 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3778.570068, "trend_reference": 3463.433415, "distance_from_trend": 0.09099, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3163.458034, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.194443, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.641563, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003164, "excess_performance": 0.057831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09099, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062011, "read": "Falling" 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3073.51001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.008829, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.003593, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.057864, "worst_return": -0.105163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036885, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112184, "worst_return": -0.207802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.112621, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028159, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.119733, "worst_return": -0.114905, "sufficient": false }, { 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"energy": 53.231561, "activity_lines": [ 3511.853402, 3393.220517, 3345.297636, 3400.908871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3625.0, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 98.1, "trend": 3545.559448, "fair_value": 3131.220151, "relative_strength": -6.695713, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.0939, "energy": 60.165814, "activity_lines": [ 3575.366048, 3446.518217, 3373.61958, 3404.790977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3507.0, "volume": 1155, "typical_volume": 149.6, "trend": 3514.195353, "fair_value": 3141.170539, "relative_strength": -8.861322, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.582778, "energy": 74.45058, "activity_lines": [ 3562.779362, 3472.746578, 3389.791321, 3402.30327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3590.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 141.9, "trend": 3487.710929, "fair_value": 3151.649142, "relative_strength": -6.922602, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.248712, "energy": 75.019539, "activity_lines": [ 3570.332682, 3509.578573, 3413.582892, 3407.193893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3778.570068, "volume": 295, "typical_volume": 118.85, "trend": 3463.433415, "fair_value": 3163.458034, "relative_strength": -1.641563, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 65.834172, "energy": 67.460072, "activity_lines": [ 3639.412028, 3573.591127, 3453.484489, 3425.958999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }