{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba6468a3-4b63-487b-8b15-e1fd4113fb51", "symbol": "FFI", "name": "FFI Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.627, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.555, "architecture_energy": 35.213, "architecture_maturity": 72.731, "architecture_confidence": 85.144, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.54, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 17.14, "deceleration": 46.77, "rotation_down": 40.75, "downward_expansion": 69.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.312667, 4.303727, 4.374595, 4.451632 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.28, "trend_reference": 4.523769, "distance_from_trend": -0.053886, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.10314, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043103, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.405079, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029278, "excess_performance": -0.092984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053886, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018708, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043103, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120661, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029278, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 18.454037, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190, "relative_activity": 0.01836, "balance": 18.454037, "dry_up": 1.030642, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028397, "annualized_volatility": 0.220816, "from_high_reference": -0.137097, "from_low_reference": 0.075551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.523769, "fair_value_reference": 4.10314, "structural_low": 4.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.005063, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": 0.00215, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.178977, "worst_return": -0.310937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.022, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.041208, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.130982, "worst_return": -0.242424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.05425, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.138121, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.12814, "worst_return": -0.259091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001751, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 4.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10209.3, "trend": 4.571717, "fair_value": 4.080274, "relative_strength": -5.111587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.574842, "energy": 81.56716, "activity_lines": [ 4.259333, 4.316636, 4.453575, 4.510027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.31, "volume": 38432, "typical_volume": 12102.0, "trend": 4.558453, "fair_value": 4.088017, "relative_strength": -3.676684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.21037, "energy": 77.635846, "activity_lines": [ 4.264, 4.306182, 4.429887, 4.493142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.46, "volume": 3821, "typical_volume": 12246.3, "trend": 4.550352, "fair_value": 4.095079, "relative_strength": -0.237116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.309912, "energy": 38.619007, "activity_lines": [ 4.328, 4.326455, 4.42231, 4.48679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.26, "volume": 220, "typical_volume": 10908.3, "trend": 4.534604, "fair_value": 4.099215, "relative_strength": -6.923178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.521895, "energy": 36.815956, "activity_lines": [ 4.321333, 4.311091, 4.396095, 4.468058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.28, "volume": 190, "typical_volume": 10348.65, "trend": 4.523769, "fair_value": 4.10314, "relative_strength": -9.405079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.555354, "energy": 35.213481, "activity_lines": [ 4.312667, 4.303727, 4.374595, 4.451632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }