{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba6f7609-8a92-49d6-a7a9-38348863348c", "symbol": "TEM", "name": "Tempus AI, Inc. Class A Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.185, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.496, "architecture_energy": 24.984, "architecture_maturity": 15.991, "architecture_confidence": 68.647, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.08, "rotation_up": 15.89, "upward_expansion": 14.63, "deceleration": 55.51, "rotation_down": 54.07, "downward_expansion": 64.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.464667, 50.800364, 50.491429, 50.52772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 52.05, "trend_reference": 52.011333, "distance_from_trend": 0.000743, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.018363, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087136, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.445826, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.052085, "excess_performance": -0.239539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087136, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051974, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284458, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.561379, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21502743, "relative_activity": 0.747453, "balance": 1.561379, "dry_up": 0.88126, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149718, "annualized_volatility": 0.755832, "from_high_reference": -0.501054, "from_low_reference": 0.276674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.011333, "fair_value_reference": 57.018363, "structural_low": 40.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.23958, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.208031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.23958, "worst_return": -0.23958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040731, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037228, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": 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"down", "direction": -29.495616, "energy": 24.98354, "activity_lines": [ 48.464667, 50.800364, 50.491429, 50.52772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }