{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba73f31c-488b-461a-a30c-b0866286ca6a", "symbol": "5398", "name": "Mediera Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.542, "architecture_energy": 66.699, "architecture_maturity": 68.322, "architecture_confidence": 93.828, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 22.17, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.17, "rotation_down": 65.71, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.233333, 14.831818, 16.227619, 17.468817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.05, "trend_reference": 18.983333, "distance_from_trend": -0.259877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.652564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.246752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.498286, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.312958, "excess_performance": -0.75433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.259877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149556, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.246752, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.524983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131497, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.312958, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.335949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 265005, "relative_activity": 0.664127, "balance": 0.335949, "dry_up": 0.627872, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091705, "annualized_volatility": 0.407565, "from_high_reference": -0.546774, "from_low_reference": 0.033088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.983333, "fair_value_reference": 18.652564, "structural_low": 13.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.020468, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.014307, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.209091, "worst_return": -0.170792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01166, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020713, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.572785, "worst_return": -0.299505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038982, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016022, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.478599, "worst_return": -0.223565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0425, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055046, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058568, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.158129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", 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20.465, "fair_value": 18.634615, "relative_strength": -52.21817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.622044, "energy": 95.073178, "activity_lines": [ 15.416667, 16.316364, 17.822143, 18.885591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.25, "volume": 358122, "typical_volume": 449801.1, "trend": 20.07, "fair_value": 18.642628, "relative_strength": -48.690242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.464009, "energy": 85.263983, "activity_lines": [ 15.166667, 15.995455, 17.460714, 18.54914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.15, "volume": 162022, "typical_volume": 439191.05, "trend": 19.641667, "fair_value": 18.645833, "relative_strength": -50.968668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.140908, "energy": 86.153565, "activity_lines": [ 14.723333, 15.559091, 17.024286, 18.167204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.05, "volume": 217003, "typical_volume": 435990.95, "trend": 19.283333, "fair_value": 18.648397, "relative_strength": -51.643179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.053264, "energy": 69.064627, "activity_lines": [ 14.4, 15.170909, 16.609762, 17.806452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.05, "volume": 265005, "typical_volume": 399027.5, "trend": 18.983333, "fair_value": 18.652564, "relative_strength": -52.498286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.541506, "energy": 66.698789, "activity_lines": [ 14.233333, 14.831818, 16.227619, 17.468817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }