{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba78471b-188f-478a-ab94-4c69475cdaf1", "symbol": "AWSR", "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.309, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.586, "architecture_energy": 47.968, "architecture_maturity": 64.335, "architecture_confidence": 70.702, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.3, "rotation_up": 43.44, "upward_expansion": 69.81, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 19.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.258333, 22.298363, 21.985685, 21.453761 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.764999, "trend_reference": 20.852967, "distance_from_trend": 0.091691, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.386442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.53618, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.147661, "excess_performance": 0.030998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091691, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051182, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025348, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015362, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147661, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 988, "relative_activity": 0.407692, "balance": 0.648724, "dry_up": 2.13347, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021744, "annualized_volatility": 0.152709, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.264722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.852967, "fair_value_reference": 17.386442, "structural_low": 18.365999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013959, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013973, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.096691, "worst_return": -0.052256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060283, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.048425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.19898, "worst_return": -0.129062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078112, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.059839, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.192411, "worst_return": -0.001426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045086, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085954, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022953, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.082907, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023384, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.314, "volume": 66, "typical_volume": 9569.4, "trend": 13.084867, "fair_value": 12.973987, "relative_strength": 4.981827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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"relative_strength": 3.804191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.130273, "energy": 79.557077, "activity_lines": [ 22.402333, 22.153636, 21.371805, 20.914776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.655001, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 2035.05, "trend": 20.505533, "fair_value": 17.173872, "relative_strength": 3.70636, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.297913, "energy": 74.578251, "activity_lines": [ 22.502, 22.296091, 21.555257, 21.060228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.055, "volume": 16193, "typical_volume": 2655.95, "trend": 20.5981, "fair_value": 17.225853, "relative_strength": 0.195807, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.207421, "energy": 63.649893, "activity_lines": [ 22.378334, 22.293909, 21.669186, 21.160194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.014999, "volume": 3132, "typical_volume": 2809.4, "trend": 20.682333, "fair_value": 17.276628, "relative_strength": 0.170966, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.262696, "energy": 56.626577, "activity_lines": [ 22.245333, 22.272727, 21.769638, 21.251606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.809999, "volume": 368, "typical_volume": 2711.95, "trend": 20.759267, "fair_value": 17.327744, "relative_strength": -1.583997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.993786, "energy": 42.5449, "activity_lines": [ 22.080333, 22.200636, 21.838771, 21.324359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.764999, "volume": 988, "typical_volume": 2423.4, "trend": 20.852967, "fair_value": 17.386442, "relative_strength": 1.53618, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.585519, "energy": 47.967698, "activity_lines": [ 22.258333, 22.298363, 21.985685, 21.453761 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }