{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba81b422-67b7-46ee-8dc9-55e57bd8b3d1", "symbol": "PAUG", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - August", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.907, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.624, "architecture_energy": 66.696, "architecture_maturity": 83.18, "architecture_confidence": 80.46, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.28, "rotation_up": 61.93, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.81, "rotation_down": 26.06, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.712667, 46.568018, 46.161619, 45.698473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.63, "trend_reference": 44.994093, "distance_from_trend": 0.036358, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.229451, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.002898, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087251, "excess_performance": -0.072908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036358, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188648, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004275, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030029, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013624, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087251, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.375912, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75667, "relative_activity": 0.179988, "balance": 3.375912, "dry_up": 0.967554, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007159, "annualized_volatility": 0.051341, "from_high_reference": -0.006181, "from_low_reference": 0.112357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.994093, "fair_value_reference": 39.229451, "structural_low": 41.92, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": 0.00906, "positive_rate": 0.645833, "directional_follow_through": 0.645833, "median_excess_return": -0.007445, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.044477, "worst_return": -0.031897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02293, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.00874, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.074551, "worst_return": -0.009238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.060133, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.037907, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.086723, "worst_return": -0.045787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.068745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005284, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030974, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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39.037272, "relative_strength": -3.665395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.580767, "energy": 72.027186, "activity_lines": [ 46.668, 46.379756, 45.956808, 45.454163 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 46.82, "volume": 158107, "typical_volume": 421609.5, "trend": 44.885427, "fair_value": 39.133874, "relative_strength": -3.469454, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.943372, "energy": 70.581027, "activity_lines": [ 46.75, 46.504342, 46.073785, 45.58592 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 46.63, "volume": 75667, "typical_volume": 420400.0, "trend": 44.994093, "fair_value": 39.229451, "relative_strength": -3.002898, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.623944, "energy": 66.69575, "activity_lines": [ 46.712667, 46.568018, 46.161619, 45.698473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }