{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba85af48-cdea-495e-bf81-808b958bcd02", "symbol": "4131", "name": "NeoCore Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.504, "architecture_energy": 34.994, "architecture_maturity": 49.406, "architecture_confidence": 89.855, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.53, "rotation_up": 22.75, "upward_expansion": 3.99, "deceleration": 58.35, "rotation_down": 48.13, "downward_expansion": 77.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.973334, 33.285455, 33.958809, 34.589785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.200001, "trend_reference": 35.696666, "distance_from_trend": -0.097955, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.925641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.716781, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.178571, "excess_performance": -0.619943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097955, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031386, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.008594, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115954, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.357168, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.142132, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34212, "relative_activity": 0.167154, "balance": 0.142132, "dry_up": 0.146382, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068562, "annualized_volatility": 0.254757, "from_high_reference": -0.241461, "from_low_reference": 0.069767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.696666, "fair_value_reference": 31.925641, "structural_low": 31.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.035833, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.05563, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.224832, "worst_return": -0.059561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.148485, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.096327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.454321, "worst_return": -0.022222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.150401, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.089407, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.710526, "worst_return": -0.04415, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043544, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041791, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077922, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.739997, "energy": 69.725666, "activity_lines": [ 32.993333, 33.9, 34.532142, 35.356559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.0, "volume": 26200, "typical_volume": 263289.5, "trend": 36.473333, "fair_value": 31.799038, "relative_strength": -29.301502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.615743, "energy": 55.029986, "activity_lines": [ 33.44, 34.030909, 34.522857, 35.250215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.799999, "volume": 16230, "typical_volume": 243950.8, "trend": 36.266666, "fair_value": 31.849038, "relative_strength": -30.107881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.771262, "energy": 37.761741, "activity_lines": [ 33.606667, 33.949091, 34.413095, 35.077742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.5, "volume": 43200, "typical_volume": 225489.9, "trend": 35.996666, "fair_value": 31.887179, "relative_strength": -33.667398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.515387, "energy": 37.179632, "activity_lines": [ 33.326666, 33.634545, 34.191428, 34.834731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 34212, "typical_volume": 204673.6, "trend": 35.696666, "fair_value": 31.925641, "relative_strength": -35.716781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.504382, "energy": 34.994165, "activity_lines": [ 32.973334, 33.285455, 33.958809, 34.589785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }