{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba95d8d1-dda2-4758-b23e-ab0b64100c41", "symbol": "NUBF", "name": "NBI Unconstrained Fixed Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.662, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.315, "architecture_energy": 28.605, "architecture_maturity": 9.036, "architecture_confidence": 64.929, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.26, "rotation_up": 10.03, "upward_expansion": 10.59, "deceleration": 53.16, "rotation_down": 59.1, "downward_expansion": 67.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.968516, 21.017731, 21.031809, 21.025956 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.059999, "trend_reference": 21.055631, "distance_from_trend": 0.000207, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.033056, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051262, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.125547, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013617, "excess_performance": -0.134038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000207, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 3.8e-05, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051262, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011576, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111255, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005149, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013617, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.880184, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2800, "relative_activity": 0.220126, "balance": 3.880184, "dry_up": 0.26533, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007265, "annualized_volatility": 0.058542, "from_high_reference": -0.018841, "from_low_reference": 0.029125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.055631, "fair_value_reference": 20.033056, "structural_low": 20.463993, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.002385, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.008912, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.011665, "worst_return": -0.03741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000465, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.030912, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.033994, "worst_return": -0.006216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008694, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.061183, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033513, 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21.090594, 21.044036, 21.050672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.85, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 14470.0, "trend": 21.06421, "fair_value": 20.002923, "relative_strength": -10.378258, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.063777, "energy": 34.032017, "activity_lines": [ 20.989414, 21.051008, 21.03106, 21.036458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.9, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 13305.0, "trend": 21.058564, "fair_value": 20.016791, "relative_strength": -9.354102, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.843092, "energy": 39.774909, "activity_lines": [ 20.943674, 21.019634, 21.024028, 21.025864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.059999, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 12720.0, "trend": 21.055631, "fair_value": 20.033056, "relative_strength": -11.125547, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.315477, "energy": 28.604996, "activity_lines": [ 20.968516, 21.017731, 21.031809, 21.025956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }