{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba98beb5-0937-4d81-b2d0-21a8f3bcdf1b", "symbol": "GMOM", "name": "CAMBRIA GLOBAL MOMENTUM ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.476, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.649, "architecture_energy": 26.649, "architecture_maturity": 15.418, "architecture_confidence": 55.378, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.25, "rotation_up": 57.42, "upward_expansion": 45.2, "deceleration": 46.44, "rotation_down": 20.37, "downward_expansion": 10.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.733153, 36.371366, 36.461081, 36.45338 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.2024, "trend_reference": 36.438269, "distance_from_trend": 0.020971, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.787736, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248917, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.227542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011768, "excess_performance": -0.113857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020971, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030034, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248917, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0536, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011768, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.141527, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23138, "relative_activity": 0.161588, "balance": 5.141527, "dry_up": 0.306599, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024123, "annualized_volatility": 0.130438, "from_high_reference": -0.03136, "from_low_reference": 0.2441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.438269, "fair_value_reference": 29.787736, "structural_low": 34.370878, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.001806, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002675, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.076111, "worst_return": -0.061296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006564, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03312, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.096903, "worst_return": -0.049044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032317, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.067525, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.105339, "worst_return": -0.07208, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -3.32868, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.011597, "energy": 42.073067, "activity_lines": [ 35.812457, 36.027991, 36.301389, 36.334804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.6787, "volume": 73764, "typical_volume": 145979.8, "trend": 36.248877, "fair_value": 29.645497, "relative_strength": -1.11915, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.832906, "energy": 10.25306, "activity_lines": [ 36.102687, 36.103704, 36.339446, 36.368189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.7173, "volume": 35666, "typical_volume": 146246.85, "trend": 36.350365, "fair_value": 29.714406, "relative_strength": -2.142602, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.17823, "energy": 12.382316, "activity_lines": [ 36.384747, 36.19081, 36.379775, 36.39841 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.2024, "volume": 23138, "typical_volume": 143191.75, "trend": 36.438269, "fair_value": 29.787736, "relative_strength": -4.227542, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.648684, "energy": 26.649055, "activity_lines": [ 36.733153, 36.371366, 36.461081, 36.45338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }