{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba98d6ba-1c1a-476f-bb43-b3d3701253eb", "symbol": "SCAP", "name": "Srisawad Capital 1969 Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.407, "architecture_energy": 65.548, "architecture_maturity": 84.003, "architecture_confidence": 93.447, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.1, "rotation_up": 61.05, "upward_expansion": 87.53, "deceleration": 65.83, "rotation_down": 25.93, "downward_expansion": 11.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.821333, 1.778364, 1.61047, 1.46339 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.88, "trend_reference": 1.286748, "distance_from_trend": 0.461047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.801448, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043605, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 34.910575, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.028047, "excess_performance": 0.835722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.461047, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.512562, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.349106, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.500158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.028047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.966533, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103298500, "relative_activity": 2.645099, "balance": 2.966533, "dry_up": 1.79837, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087561, "annualized_volatility": 0.467386, "from_high_reference": -0.050505, "from_low_reference": 1.11344 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.286748, "fair_value_reference": 1.801448, "structural_low": 0.936364, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.046868, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035037, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.259542, "worst_return": -0.163121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.243535, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.196602, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052174, "worst_return": -0.248227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.234043, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.245907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.052174, "worst_return": -0.335015, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1.174321, "fair_value": 1.851609, "relative_strength": 28.346284, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.206469, "energy": 71.929561, "activity_lines": [ 1.724, 1.648727, 1.427471, 1.309641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.82, "volume": 65814400, "typical_volume": 31099155.0, "trend": 1.201903, "fair_value": 1.838529, "relative_strength": 30.082335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.286899, "energy": 71.895048, "activity_lines": [ 1.763333, 1.700364, 1.479372, 1.351298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.65, "volume": 54783100, "typical_volume": 32809470.0, "trend": 1.225067, "fair_value": 1.824358, "relative_strength": 17.384135, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.732442, "energy": 64.666019, "activity_lines": [ 1.734667, 1.707455, 1.511543, 1.380207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.89, "volume": 57029400, "typical_volume": 34394930.0, "trend": 1.255606, "fair_value": 1.812878, "relative_strength": 35.244609, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.274159, "energy": 68.989953, "activity_lines": [ 1.786, 1.749091, 1.56353, 1.423106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.88, "volume": 103298500, "typical_volume": 39052790.0, "trend": 1.286748, "fair_value": 1.801448, "relative_strength": 34.910575, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.407209, "energy": 65.547859, "activity_lines": [ 1.821333, 1.778364, 1.61047, 1.46339 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }