{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ba9aebc5-8870-4948-9a59-abb6a1fe825f", "symbol": "SRE", "name": "Sirius Real Estate Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.251, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.186, "architecture_energy": 23.508, "architecture_maturity": 19.716, "architecture_confidence": 47.768, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.32, "rotation_up": 54.82, "upward_expansion": 43.72, "deceleration": 25.78, "rotation_down": 20.14, "downward_expansion": 18.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.9834, 0.971336, 0.965756, 0.966165 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.991, "trend_reference": 0.970184, "distance_from_trend": 0.021456, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.850661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.12359, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.027829, "excess_performance": -0.023406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021456, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013461, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164976, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035808, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038674, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027829, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.815972, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16386826, "relative_activity": 1.076458, "balance": 0.815972, "dry_up": 1.200322, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053026, "annualized_volatility": 0.243054, "from_high_reference": -0.096784, "from_low_reference": 0.175847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.970184, "fair_value_reference": 0.850661, "structural_low": 0.871441, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.060773, "positive_rate": 0.923077, "directional_follow_through": 0.923077, "median_excess_return": 0.028187, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.137547, "worst_return": -0.008475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.100679, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.091407, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.183293, "worst_return": -0.061419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.128173, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092059, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.173681, "worst_return": 0.028154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.155052, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176609, "worst_return": -0.028724, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015735, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005696, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019018, "active": false 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"fair_value": 0.846904, "relative_strength": -3.906522, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.430841, "energy": 7.621106, "activity_lines": [ 0.967268, 0.959281, 0.959275, 0.963374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9895, "volume": 25668925, "typical_volume": 17980707.25, "trend": 0.969678, "fair_value": 0.848834, "relative_strength": -4.337989, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.442286, "energy": 16.360135, "activity_lines": [ 0.97609, 0.96542, 0.962549, 0.964789 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.991, "volume": 16386826, "typical_volume": 15222910.1, "trend": 0.970184, "fair_value": 0.850661, "relative_strength": -4.12359, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.185759, "energy": 23.507563, "activity_lines": [ 0.9834, 0.971336, 0.965756, 0.966165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }