{ "ticker": { "uuid": "baa4b6d4-0f37-4866-acae-6d9153443541", "symbol": "MSTU", "name": "T-REX 2X LONG MSTR DAILY TARGET ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.543, "architecture_energy": 61.085, "architecture_maturity": 41.514, "architecture_confidence": 94.809, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.53, "rotation_up": 24.56, "upward_expansion": 12.03, "deceleration": 45.26, "rotation_down": 58.37, "downward_expansion": 87.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.851333, 1.990545, 3.417738, 4.074376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.995, "trend_reference": 5.0265, "distance_from_trend": -0.603104, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.64534, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.959815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -89.564028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.638587, "excess_performance": -0.764212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.603104, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.401096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.959815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116208, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.89564, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.638587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.712431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 684900440, "relative_activity": 2.369469, "balance": 0.712431, "dry_up": 1.860517, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.635041, "annualized_volatility": 1.659655, "from_high_reference": -0.976222, "from_low_reference": 0.366438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.0265, "fair_value_reference": 49.64534, "structural_low": 1.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.170068, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.156433, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.733333, "worst_return": -0.172414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.662069, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.814663, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.662069, "worst_return": -0.662069, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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2.114273, 3.657405, 4.284548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.995, "volume": 684900440, "typical_volume": 289052305.15, "trend": 5.0265, "fair_value": 49.64534, "relative_strength": -89.564028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.542943, "energy": 61.085414, "activity_lines": [ 1.851333, 1.990545, 3.417738, 4.074376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }