{ "ticker": { "uuid": "baa9e690-6acf-4cf2-91ef-36fd67d5b62f", "symbol": "6858", "name": "Ipevo Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.981, "architecture_energy": 49.5, "architecture_maturity": 7.841, "architecture_confidence": 95.034, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.74, "rotation_up": 15.22, "upward_expansion": 9.15, "deceleration": 41.76, "rotation_down": 59.25, "downward_expansion": 82.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.976666, 22.276363, 23.185714, 23.42086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.0, "trend_reference": 23.541667, "distance_from_trend": -0.023009, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.632051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.167633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.682359, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045643, "excess_performance": -0.487015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023009, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.167633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.492768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30594, "relative_activity": 0.489267, "balance": 0.492768, "dry_up": 0.969499, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081605, "annualized_volatility": 0.362453, "from_high_reference": -0.309309, "from_low_reference": 0.108434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.541667, "fair_value_reference": 27.632051, "structural_low": 20.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.004638, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021909, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.19281, "worst_return": -0.109504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031204, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.083723, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.097179, "worst_return": -0.1139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.099174, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.261514, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.199134, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156662, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.182759, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125954, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 22.21, 22.801818, 23.735714, 23.748064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 84619, "typical_volume": 72450.15, "trend": 23.773333, "fair_value": 27.816667, "relative_strength": -39.224705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.887715, "energy": 56.74953, "activity_lines": [ 21.963333, 22.509091, 23.530714, 23.614301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.35, "volume": 530, "typical_volume": 72244.4, "trend": 23.575, "fair_value": 27.700321, "relative_strength": -40.996661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.644207, "energy": 64.858172, "activity_lines": [ 21.623333, 22.216363, 23.280476, 23.457957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.0, "volume": 30594, "typical_volume": 62530.25, "trend": 23.541667, "fair_value": 27.632051, "relative_strength": -37.682359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.980989, "energy": 49.499749, "activity_lines": [ 21.976666, 22.276363, 23.185714, 23.42086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }