{ "ticker": { "uuid": "baad1435-605a-4117-b2c1-1388f20ab141", "symbol": "002410", "name": "Glodon Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.027, "architecture_energy": 32.559, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.678, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.14, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 18.41, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 28.69, "downward_expansion": 63.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.035333, 8.807636, 9.241473, 9.889156 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.39, "trend_reference": 10.915856, "distance_from_trend": -0.139783, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.454334, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.302084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.4579, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.303473, "excess_performance": -0.310872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139783, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.302084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.244579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303473, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485383, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 213229300, "relative_activity": 1.635562, "balance": 0.485383, "dry_up": 1.379443, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079463, "annualized_volatility": 0.326581, "from_high_reference": -0.414168, "from_low_reference": 0.17375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.915856, "fair_value_reference": 13.454334, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.033235, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.021275, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.545357, "worst_return": -0.272148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.155165, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.096431, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.282881, "worst_return": -0.367759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13513, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.05332, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.275574, "worst_return": -0.559895, "sufficient": true }, { 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8.51, "volume": 189303752, "typical_volume": 125340144.65, "trend": 11.107601, "fair_value": 13.693223, "relative_strength": -30.420922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.756862, "energy": 63.139028, "activity_lines": [ 8.444, 8.613455, 9.34095, 10.104079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.4, "volume": 160732093, "typical_volume": 126433062.75, "trend": 11.013691, "fair_value": 13.568126, "relative_strength": -21.216066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.928747, "energy": 46.247296, "activity_lines": [ 8.787333, 8.706727, 9.284909, 9.993911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.39, "volume": 213229300, "typical_volume": 130370674.65, "trend": 10.915856, "fair_value": 13.454334, "relative_strength": -24.4579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.026942, "energy": 32.558835, "activity_lines": [ 9.035333, 8.807636, 9.241473, 9.889156 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }