{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "babf76d3-5a17-4a72-8a88-3b2e37fa0510",
    "symbol": "ABSL-B",
    "name": "Absolicon Solar Collector AB",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 67.693,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -31.745,
    "architecture_energy": 58.819,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.744,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.697,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.14,
        "rotation_up": 14.72,
        "upward_expansion": 27.58,
        "deceleration": 49.45,
        "rotation_down": 73.85,
        "downward_expansion": 59.58
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.720667,
        4.164364,
        4.883949,
        4.871045
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 3.61,
    "trend_reference": 4.494489,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.196794,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 8.102594,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.554464,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -12.365494,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.752427,
    "excess_performance": 0.690933,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.196794,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.224938,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.554464,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048597,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123655,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.425467,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.752427,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.397784,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 223652,
      "relative_activity": 1.034842,
      "balance": 0.397784,
      "dry_up": 0.604738,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.271681,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.763557,
      "from_high_reference": -0.800552,
      "from_low_reference": 1.117302
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4.494489,
      "fair_value_reference": 8.102594,
      "structural_low": 1.91,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.012097,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.013131,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.012097,
        "worst_return": -0.012097,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.028226,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.08341,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.028226,
        "worst_return": 0.028226,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.08871,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008891,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.08871,
        "worst_return": -0.08871,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.070376,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.105328,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.070376,
        "worst_return": -0.070376,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2022-03-04",
        "end": "2022-03-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.123457,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2022-03-18",
        "end": "2022-03-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.010101,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2022-04-01",
        "end": "2022-04-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.070039,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2022-04-22",
        "end": "2022-05-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.093496,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2022-05-20",
        "end": "2022-12-23",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.054795,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2022-12-30",
        "end": "2023-02-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.132479,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-02-10",
        "end": "2023-02-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.016092,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-02-24",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.958353,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.221636,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.171429,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-03-06",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.225806,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.142578,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.072319,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.062338,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 44.200001,
        "volume": 11755,
        "typical_volume": 23224.25,
        "trend": 66.69,
        "fair_value": 107.671884,
        "relative_strength": -46.087398,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.295581,
        "energy": 35.89227,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.211139,
        "energy": 19.817538,
        "activity_lines": [
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          5.036761
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 357109.35,
        "trend": 4.224155,
        "fair_value": 9.700158,
        "relative_strength": 8.453529,
        "stage": 1,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 99984,
        "typical_volume": 361460.8,
        "trend": 4.284155,
        "fair_value": 9.350222,
        "relative_strength": 1.064356,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -3.160714,
        "energy": 18.479265,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.691333,
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          5.489752,
          5.038483
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 3.72,
        "volume": 99000,
        "typical_volume": 358974.7,
        "trend": 4.339155,
        "fair_value": 9.054196,
        "relative_strength": -5.245765,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.372741,
        "energy": 32.914599,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.220667,
          5.087091,
          5.331492,
          5.002086
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3.85,
        "volume": 79839,
        "typical_volume": 327126.75,
        "trend": 4.397155,
        "fair_value": 8.719902,
        "relative_strength": -3.632334,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.158272,
        "energy": 43.403252,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.985333,
          4.755455,
          5.180327,
          4.970527
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.69,
        "volume": 120297,
        "typical_volume": 230101.0,
        "trend": 4.444822,
        "fair_value": 8.390991,
        "relative_strength": -8.788289,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.268069,
        "energy": 58.208406,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.828,
          4.433818,
          5.031019,
          4.924904
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3.61,
        "volume": 223652,
        "typical_volume": 216121.8,
        "trend": 4.494489,
        "fair_value": 8.102594,
        "relative_strength": -12.365494,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.745435,
        "energy": 58.819132,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.720667,
          4.164364,
          4.883949,
          4.871045
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}