{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bacb0004-1617-4431-891e-318f192dc23f", "symbol": "CABA", "name": "Cabaletta Bio Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.189, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.893, "architecture_energy": 42.547, "architecture_maturity": 8.154, "architecture_confidence": 61.941, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.39, "rotation_up": 19.15, "upward_expansion": 16.64, "deceleration": 45.33, "rotation_down": 58.35, "downward_expansion": 55.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.758333, 2.856364, 3.040381, 3.057935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.79, "trend_reference": 3.0225, "distance_from_trend": -0.076923, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.880609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.594513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.05552, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111554, "excess_performance": -0.0759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07067, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.594513, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102272, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090555, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.460817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111554, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.695218, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20251367, "relative_activity": 1.040411, "balance": 0.695218, "dry_up": 0.746704, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16086, "annualized_volatility": 0.711455, "from_high_reference": -0.340426, "from_low_reference": 1.214286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.0225, "fair_value_reference": 6.880609, "structural_low": 2.41, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.158542, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150116, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.063943, "worst_return": -0.338814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.529636, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.552234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.516148, "worst_return": -0.543124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.756348, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.678619, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.752789, "worst_return": -0.759907, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2023-03-03", "end": "2023-05-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.382418, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.3584, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.338814, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.838866, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.223464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118644, 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18.206841, "activity_lines": [ 3.06, 3.212364, 3.208952, 3.114065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.975, "volume": 35910280, "typical_volume": 18973555.7, "trend": 2.9525, "fair_value": 7.143045, "relative_strength": -1.188039, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.985787, "energy": 11.281446, "activity_lines": [ 3.029667, 3.155273, 3.190143, 3.116839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.83, "volume": 17359011, "typical_volume": 18746941.85, "trend": 2.967167, "fair_value": 7.074776, "relative_strength": -2.414322, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.883449, "energy": 9.15794, "activity_lines": [ 2.969333, 3.071182, 3.157214, 3.108935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.69, "volume": 11086715, "typical_volume": 18856678.6, "trend": 2.983833, "fair_value": 7.010096, "relative_strength": -6.165301, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.174435, "energy": 26.189779, "activity_lines": [ 2.874333, 2.980727, 3.113286, 3.091054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.68, "volume": 9440552, "typical_volume": 18922782.7, "trend": 2.9995, "fair_value": 6.950032, "relative_strength": -7.570623, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.967202, "energy": 37.653109, "activity_lines": [ 2.786, 2.899727, 3.07069, 3.071452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.79, "volume": 20251367, "typical_volume": 19464766.85, "trend": 3.0225, "fair_value": 6.880609, "relative_strength": -9.05552, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.893295, "energy": 42.547399, "activity_lines": [ 2.758333, 2.856364, 3.040381, 3.057935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }