{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bacd9014-b144-41ca-81b4-2d05694c1321", "symbol": "002936", "name": "Bank of Zhengzhou Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.697, "architecture_energy": 23.125, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.541, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.52, "rotation_up": 37.55, "upward_expansion": 20.16, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 24.11, "downward_expansion": 56.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.775333, 1.749455, 1.759619, 1.785785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.76, "trend_reference": 1.824, "distance_from_trend": -0.035088, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.956885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.195453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.078534, "excess_performance": -0.085934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035088, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100611, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140662, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078534, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.199279, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 536740369, "relative_activity": 1.722025, "balance": 1.199279, "dry_up": 1.731167, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039773, "annualized_volatility": 0.147208, "from_high_reference": -0.17757, "from_low_reference": 0.060241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.824, "fair_value_reference": 1.956885, "structural_low": 1.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.005587, "positive_rate": 0.44186, "directional_follow_through": 0.534884, "median_excess_return": 0.007418, "regime_survival": 0.860465, "best_return": 0.12069, "worst_return": -0.095239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.035027, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.006624, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.134832, "worst_return": -0.111702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.057522, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.046106, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.109948, "worst_return": -0.147959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063218, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010256, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": 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"energy": 86.869021, "activity_lines": [ 1.694667, 1.723273, 1.765952, 1.801226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.75, "volume": 553886487, "typical_volume": 313397910.15, "trend": 1.84, "fair_value": 1.962928, "relative_strength": -10.208444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.486883, "energy": 56.409704, "activity_lines": [ 1.708667, 1.723636, 1.760667, 1.795011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.76, "volume": 538087968, "typical_volume": 312652162.7, "trend": 1.833333, "fair_value": 1.960806, "relative_strength": -9.279187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.424344, "energy": 37.43517, "activity_lines": [ 1.728, 1.727455, 1.75719, 1.789849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.84, "volume": 529645108, "typical_volume": 310734599.2, "trend": 1.829667, "fair_value": 1.959134, "relative_strength": -3.033468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.060012, "energy": 16.261328, "activity_lines": [ 1.770667, 1.746364, 1.762, 1.79028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.76, "volume": 536740369, "typical_volume": 311691399.05, "trend": 1.824, "fair_value": 1.956885, "relative_strength": -11.195453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.696999, "energy": 23.12544, "activity_lines": [ 1.775333, 1.749455, 1.759619, 1.785785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }