{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bad64ebc-54d9-408c-a36d-da0eccacf037", "symbol": "MWA", "name": "Mueller Water Products", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.962, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.667, "architecture_energy": 18.102, "architecture_maturity": 30.587, "architecture_confidence": 68.545, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.05, "rotation_up": 26.09, "upward_expansion": 20.04, "deceleration": 40.61, "rotation_down": 34.19, "downward_expansion": 58.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.676, 25.611818, 25.859478, 26.364726 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.65, "trend_reference": 26.938752, "distance_from_trend": -0.010719, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.582276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.166689, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082053, "excess_performance": -0.207678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23481, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00265, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.410225, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5988719, "relative_activity": 1.014943, "balance": 1.410225, "dry_up": 0.982974, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057019, "annualized_volatility": 0.226543, "from_high_reference": -0.137995, "from_low_reference": 0.17791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.938752, "fair_value_reference": 21.582276, "structural_low": 24.18, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028341, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.019305, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.092205, "worst_return": -0.081223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.070152, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000684, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.15524, "worst_return": -0.107828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.040589, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021589, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.316349, "worst_return": -0.138348, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.631622, "energy": 36.09132, "activity_lines": [ 25.510667, 25.565432, 26.24152, 26.685178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.46, "volume": 6387254, "typical_volume": 5839313.7, "trend": 26.827929, "fair_value": 21.362253, "relative_strength": -10.47661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.128226, "energy": 35.629056, "activity_lines": [ 25.428, 25.536364, 26.107865, 26.599277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.03, "volume": 4554644, "typical_volume": 5848040.8, "trend": 26.840115, "fair_value": 21.424164, "relative_strength": -11.218393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.622071, "energy": 54.133238, "activity_lines": [ 25.226, 25.444364, 25.954158, 26.483282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.24, "volume": 6269728, "typical_volume": 5951995.3, "trend": 26.88749, "fair_value": 21.498458, "relative_strength": -11.210579, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.419617, "energy": 46.657342, "activity_lines": [ 25.167333, 25.399273, 25.833901, 26.380048 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.65, "volume": 5988719, "typical_volume": 5900548.65, "trend": 26.938752, "fair_value": 21.582276, "relative_strength": -9.166689, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.666586, "energy": 18.102396, "activity_lines": [ 25.676, 25.611818, 25.859478, 26.364726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }