{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bad69e09-5c0d-4d8f-bdda-1c5a7dda4c25", "symbol": "ZAA", "name": "ZALEKTA Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.908, "architecture_energy": 50.374, "architecture_maturity": 14.591, "architecture_confidence": 94.328, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.52, "rotation_up": 16.05, "upward_expansion": 8.59, "deceleration": 41.67, "rotation_down": 62.04, "downward_expansion": 84.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.660667, 1.681455, 1.714095, 1.729634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.743667, "distance_from_trend": -0.082393, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.902051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158803, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.418415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075145, "excess_performance": -0.26747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082393, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043868, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158803, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075145, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.27599, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144300, "relative_activity": 1.335246, "balance": 0.27599, "dry_up": 0.772185, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065865, "annualized_volatility": 0.331592, "from_high_reference": -0.327731, "from_low_reference": 0.300813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.743667, "fair_value_reference": 1.902051, "structural_low": 1.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.026266, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 1.142857, "worst_return": -0.180328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.253247, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.198367, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.1, "worst_return": -0.349515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.064685, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.122422, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.631579, "worst_return": -0.145631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.193182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.295775, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.425, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.67, "volume": 64600, "typical_volume": 124560.0, "trend": 1.762, "fair_value": 1.913782, "relative_strength": -26.025063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.529101, "energy": 46.593949, "activity_lines": [ 1.680667, 1.702182, 1.73419, 1.742817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.71, "volume": 44000, "typical_volume": 109250.0, "trend": 1.752333, "fair_value": 1.908205, "relative_strength": -22.67087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.290698, "energy": 34.581653, "activity_lines": [ 1.689333, 1.701636, 1.729333, 1.739462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 144300, "typical_volume": 108070.0, "trend": 1.743667, "fair_value": 1.902051, "relative_strength": -26.418415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.908281, "energy": 50.373639, "activity_lines": [ 1.660667, 1.681455, 1.714095, 1.729634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }