{ "ticker": { "uuid": "badba746-c953-4e51-ba0c-044acb9671f2", "symbol": "4161", "name": "BinDawood Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.96, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.38, "architecture_energy": 52.737, "architecture_maturity": 6.763, "architecture_confidence": 71.105, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.88, "rotation_up": 17.55, "upward_expansion": 28.7, "deceleration": 46.54, "rotation_down": 68.0, "downward_expansion": 56.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.665333, 4.761088, 4.850889, 4.842052 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.65, "trend_reference": 4.816325, "distance_from_trend": -0.034534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.000443, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.225057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.592854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023109, "excess_performance": 0.00872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006355, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.225057, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043051, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.10744, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1902858, "relative_activity": 0.473994, "balance": 1.10744, "dry_up": 0.470056, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042439, "annualized_volatility": 0.227135, "from_high_reference": -0.207926, "from_low_reference": 0.134146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.816325, "fair_value_reference": 6.000443, "structural_low": 4.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005369, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.00821, "worst_return": -0.021888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.025705, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031095, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074666, "worst_return": -0.023256, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.05469, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019673, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218177, "worst_return": -0.108797, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.213218, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.136101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213218, "worst_return": 0.213218, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058309, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021888, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058414, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.047394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084395, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082312, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086601, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.028839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044574, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00432, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 6.328578, "volume": 3998745, "typical_volume": 2300923.35, "trend": 5.923287, "fair_value": 7.690127, "relative_strength": 4.855934, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.712454, "energy": 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"fair_value": 6.024126, "relative_strength": -6.285933, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.470544, "energy": 39.634278, "activity_lines": [ 4.764, 4.841805, 4.899363, 4.864632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.63, "volume": 1820928, "typical_volume": 3971107.55, "trend": 4.813992, "fair_value": 6.01228, "relative_strength": -4.211265, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.419404, "energy": 50.189499, "activity_lines": [ 4.702, 4.797265, 4.874364, 4.852632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.65, "volume": 1902858, "typical_volume": 4014520.2, "trend": 4.816325, "fair_value": 6.000443, "relative_strength": -5.592854, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.380462, "energy": 52.736922, "activity_lines": [ 4.665333, 4.761088, 4.850889, 4.842052 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }