{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bae20100-f231-46bc-a40e-c06188d8ba3b", "symbol": "BCH", "name": "Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.452, "architecture_energy": 83.693, "architecture_maturity": 13.578, "architecture_confidence": 58.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.23, "rotation_up": 82.83, "upward_expansion": 92.82, "deceleration": 42.54, "rotation_down": 8.71, "downward_expansion": 17.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.6, 10.310909, 9.931787, 9.831671 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.2, "trend_reference": 9.784018, "distance_from_trend": 0.144724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.491305, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227123, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.737547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145071, "excess_performance": -0.047254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144724, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00406, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.227123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154177, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217002, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.187042, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100382400, "relative_activity": 2.363747, "balance": 2.187042, "dry_up": 1.719943, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044643, "annualized_volatility": 0.345884, "from_high_reference": -0.198394, "from_low_reference": 0.257089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.784018, "fair_value_reference": 14.491305, "structural_low": 8.909474, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.023984, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.018532, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.106061, "worst_return": -0.1681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023012, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.032277, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.138614, "worst_return": -0.176874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.069445, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.030089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01247, "worst_return": -0.18087, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 10.8, "volume": 99591100, "typical_volume": 43023810.0, "trend": 9.72493, "fair_value": 14.609816, "relative_strength": -15.152115, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.605638, "energy": 72.157004, "activity_lines": [ 10.226667, 9.894545, 9.659108, 9.675402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.1, "volume": 71035300, "typical_volume": 42088350.0, "trend": 9.722649, "fair_value": 14.568317, "relative_strength": -19.990905, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.807205, "energy": 63.319423, "activity_lines": [ 10.246667, 9.971818, 9.712258, 9.6996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.3, "volume": 21157900, "typical_volume": 40091905.0, "trend": 9.730263, "fair_value": 14.528101, "relative_strength": -16.561053, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.492333, "energy": 68.37296, "activity_lines": [ 10.286667, 10.069091, 9.780401, 9.736849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.2, "volume": 100382400, "typical_volume": 42467490.0, "trend": 9.784018, "fair_value": 14.491305, "relative_strength": -7.737547, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.451546, "energy": 83.693089, "activity_lines": [ 10.6, 10.310909, 9.931787, 9.831671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }