{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bae8d6a5-5955-4930-baad-39154ac62fea", "symbol": "000859", "name": "Anhui Guofeng New Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.562, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.547, "architecture_energy": 68.891, "architecture_maturity": 17.537, "architecture_confidence": 78.732, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.39, "rotation_up": 9.31, "upward_expansion": 15.05, "deceleration": 37.6, "rotation_down": 71.57, "downward_expansion": 88.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.143333, 8.711273, 9.288048, 9.584968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.66, "trend_reference": 10.119333, "distance_from_trend": -0.144212, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.355256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.277432, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.129648, "excess_performance": -0.137048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144212, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02783, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190601, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029197, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129648, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.081868, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 260832168, "relative_activity": 1.322106, "balance": 1.081868, "dry_up": 1.047758, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147806, "annualized_volatility": 0.563729, "from_high_reference": -0.384943, "from_low_reference": 0.396774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.119333, "fair_value_reference": 6.355256, "structural_low": 6.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.038062, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.011706, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.427027, "worst_return": -0.122449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.136769, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.081065, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.670769, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025349, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.104441, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.621538, "worst_return": -0.04059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 7.65, "volume": 136626494, "typical_volume": 201190205.15, "trend": 10.316, "fair_value": 6.303782, "relative_strength": -13.868341, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.055396, "energy": 69.106998, "activity_lines": [ 8.862, 9.625818, 9.760333, 10.00643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.27, "volume": 156031110, "typical_volume": 196191380.85, "trend": 10.258667, "fair_value": 6.315641, "relative_strength": -18.294175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.87694, "energy": 83.945888, "activity_lines": [ 8.130667, 9.137818, 9.512, 9.809914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.28, "volume": 273339672, "typical_volume": 196432533.95, "trend": 10.168, "fair_value": 6.33391, "relative_strength": -5.571326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.884226, "energy": 77.039972, "activity_lines": [ 8.012, 8.866909, 9.375905, 9.682258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.66, "volume": 260832168, "typical_volume": 197285439.2, "trend": 10.119333, "fair_value": 6.355256, "relative_strength": -6.277432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.546746, "energy": 68.891146, "activity_lines": [ 8.143333, 8.711273, 9.288048, 9.584968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }