{ "ticker": { "uuid": "baf33fcc-78b3-419e-ba00-758e220d1645", "symbol": "GLDV", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Global Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.778, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.106, "architecture_energy": 67.468, "architecture_maturity": 33.74, "architecture_confidence": 61.132, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 70.94, "upward_expansion": 86.48, "deceleration": 52.32, "rotation_down": 12.8, "downward_expansion": 13.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.930809, 34.661519, 34.105839, 33.722489 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.84, "trend_reference": 33.283928, "distance_from_trend": 0.046751, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.900354, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205522, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.701464, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052745, "excess_performance": -0.118147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036943, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031629, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006807, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052745, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.517704, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82374, "relative_activity": 1.156164, "balance": 0.517704, "dry_up": 1.325355, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018411, "annualized_volatility": 0.088224, "from_high_reference": -0.025862, "from_low_reference": 0.186515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.283928, "fair_value_reference": 28.900354, "structural_low": 31.251447, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.010455, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": 0.003405, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.047391, "worst_return": -0.08265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02442, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.007937, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.107792, "worst_return": -0.079355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031765, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.008918, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.160179, "worst_return": -0.075517, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 35.341015, "volume": 91219, "typical_volume": 67340.25, "trend": 33.05121, "fair_value": 28.762244, "relative_strength": -2.164137, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.216396, "energy": 85.022164, "activity_lines": [ 34.808971, 34.412955, 33.82643, 33.498004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.872688, "volume": 138875, "typical_volume": 70010.25, "trend": 33.181971, "fair_value": 28.831191, "relative_strength": -3.995374, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.452478, "energy": 68.21779, "activity_lines": [ 34.891094, 34.552778, 33.973836, 33.615519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.84, "volume": 82374, "typical_volume": 71247.7, "trend": 33.283928, "fair_value": 28.900354, "relative_strength": -6.701464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.106294, "energy": 67.467714, "activity_lines": [ 34.930809, 34.661519, 34.105839, 33.722489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }