{ "ticker": { "uuid": "baf439af-438c-4cfa-85de-e724714a070b", "symbol": "KCO", "name": "Kl\u00f6ckner & Co SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.345, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.732, "architecture_energy": 26.852, "architecture_maturity": 67.483, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.2, "rotation_up": 31.26, "upward_expansion": 50.04, "deceleration": 85.08, "rotation_down": 25.42, "downward_expansion": 25.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.346667, 12.350909, 12.361896, 12.200322 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.36, "trend_reference": 11.888925, "distance_from_trend": 0.039623, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.967665, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.773909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.317149, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137711, "excess_performance": 0.073071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039623, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.773909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.213171, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332088, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137711, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.70587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 389990, "relative_activity": 0.89524, "balance": 5.70587, "dry_up": 0.634501, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01514, "annualized_volatility": 0.111823, "from_high_reference": -0.023697, "from_low_reference": 1.462809 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.888925, "fair_value_reference": 6.967665, "structural_low": 10.785199, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011476, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.029907, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.144781, "worst_return": -0.120588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09822, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.083041, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.038433, "worst_return": -0.180758, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.149272, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.239075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.072165, "worst_return": -0.305627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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322476, "typical_volume": 651611.2, "trend": 11.608121, "fair_value": 6.90298, "relative_strength": 29.838957, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.00148, "energy": 35.714254, "activity_lines": [ 12.324, 12.36, 12.344291, 12.112554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.36, "volume": 179762, "typical_volume": 508541.65, "trend": 11.751475, "fair_value": 6.934641, "relative_strength": 25.942723, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.565776, "energy": 33.773804, "activity_lines": [ 12.337333, 12.354909, 12.354594, 12.161062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.36, "volume": 389990, "typical_volume": 435626.3, "trend": 11.888925, "fair_value": 6.967665, "relative_strength": 21.317149, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.731893, "energy": 26.851858, "activity_lines": [ 12.346667, 12.350909, 12.361896, 12.200322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }