{ "ticker": { "uuid": "baff584e-c200-45a8-a3e4-aecc2babd6e1", "symbol": "BOL", "name": "Bollor\u00e9 SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.271, "architecture_energy": 89.429, "architecture_maturity": 43.171, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.01, "rotation_up": 19.99, "upward_expansion": 20.96, "deceleration": 37.16, "rotation_down": 68.35, "downward_expansion": 94.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.8896, 3.95535, 3.977344, 4.121694 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.784, "trend_reference": 4.321784, "distance_from_trend": -0.124436, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.230165, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.447846, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.194551, "excess_performance": -0.368798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124436, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051114, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276505, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022276, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.324478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025541, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.266175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.266175, "dry_up": 2.618393, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029445, "annualized_volatility": 0.459593, "from_high_reference": -0.265243, "from_low_reference": 0.049579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.321784, "fair_value_reference": 5.230165, "structural_low": 3.605255, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.01367, "positive_rate": 0.681818, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.039758, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.109067, "worst_return": -0.101462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020322, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.076416, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134979, "worst_return": -0.086049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043489, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.052118, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.166825, "worst_return": -0.110058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060498, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 955.15, "trend": 4.403051, "fair_value": 5.264074, "relative_strength": -27.889534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.077827, "energy": 25.735818, "activity_lines": [ 4.0687, 4.011542, 4.069499, 4.221088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.924, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 955.15, "trend": 4.380251, "fair_value": 5.252074, "relative_strength": -29.423356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.815173, "energy": 39.426303, "activity_lines": [ 4.0232, 4.005674, 4.041635, 4.190182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.886, "volume": 9521, "typical_volume": 1229.3, "trend": 4.351317, "fair_value": 5.240732, "relative_strength": -29.32697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.410098, "energy": 67.995454, "activity_lines": [ 3.967867, 3.990094, 4.012999, 4.158295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.784, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 909.05, "trend": 4.321784, "fair_value": 5.230165, "relative_strength": -32.447846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.270906, "energy": 89.428561, "activity_lines": [ 3.8896, 3.95535, 3.977344, 4.121694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }