{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb05f71c-cb14-4586-bbb1-0d387e542d04", "symbol": "JANU", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER15 UNCAPPED JAN ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.185, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.359, "architecture_energy": 48.777, "architecture_maturity": 22.345, "architecture_confidence": 78.628, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.37, "rotation_up": 53.75, "upward_expansion": 79.67, "deceleration": 56.16, "rotation_down": 24.35, "downward_expansion": 6.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.280967, 30.130591, 29.944083, 29.523081 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.9178, "trend_reference": 29.042587, "distance_from_trend": 0.064568, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.200039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136682, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.114457, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088682, "excess_performance": -0.036943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064568, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023645, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.136682, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017656, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088682, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.97673, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27544, "relative_activity": 0.718073, "balance": 0.97673, "dry_up": 0.457432, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022254, "annualized_volatility": 0.10854, "from_high_reference": -0.024675, "from_low_reference": 0.168915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.042587, "fair_value_reference": 27.200039, "structural_low": 26.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.018876, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005377, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.018876, "worst_return": 0.018876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.283371, "energy": 35.744136, "activity_lines": [ 30.013433, 30.007682, 29.65744, 29.266885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.7457, "volume": 9765, "typical_volume": 41556.95, "trend": 28.900647, "fair_value": 27.120185, "relative_strength": -2.655639, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.488032, "energy": 32.45911, "activity_lines": [ 29.934127, 29.958051, 29.716717, 29.324062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.0303, "volume": 14397, "typical_volume": 40806.15, "trend": 28.96266, "fair_value": 27.155247, "relative_strength": -2.688765, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.064319, "energy": 34.520679, "activity_lines": [ 29.979973, 29.963024, 29.794, 29.396943 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.9178, "volume": 27544, "typical_volume": 38358.2, "trend": 29.042587, "fair_value": 27.200039, "relative_strength": -3.114457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.359091, "energy": 48.776808, "activity_lines": [ 30.280967, 30.130591, 29.944083, 29.523081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }