{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb098789-8f60-4564-9713-e804d90bb544", "symbol": "300135", "name": "Jiangsu Baoli International Investment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.056, "architecture_energy": 43.834, "architecture_maturity": 86.879, "architecture_confidence": 65.578, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.49, "rotation_up": 25.74, "upward_expansion": 18.2, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 47.69, "downward_expansion": 70.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.181333, 3.175091, 3.357333, 3.529957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.26, "trend_reference": 3.739, "distance_from_trend": -0.128109, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.611754, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.097391, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.660166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.20098, "excess_performance": -0.20838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070902, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.097391, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238666, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.20098, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.672275, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75319472, "relative_activity": 0.819185, "balance": 0.672275, "dry_up": 1.390118, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077159, "annualized_volatility": 0.323004, "from_high_reference": -0.396296, "from_low_reference": 0.135889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.739, "fair_value_reference": 3.611754, "structural_low": 2.87, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.030699, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.022354, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.27459, "worst_return": -0.180064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.146892, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.157977, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.910204, "worst_return": -0.183511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.103994, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.210008, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.988142, "worst_return": -0.207595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.786333, "fair_value": 3.605961, "relative_strength": -23.998339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.795293, "energy": 62.381688, "activity_lines": [ 3.098, 3.178182, 3.423238, 3.597591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.24, "volume": 104527670, "typical_volume": 105474860.4, "trend": 3.762, "fair_value": 3.608825, "relative_strength": -17.820276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.011863, "energy": 54.795058, "activity_lines": [ 3.141333, 3.170182, 3.386238, 3.562344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.26, "volume": 75319472, "typical_volume": 91944374.4, "trend": 3.739, "fair_value": 3.611754, "relative_strength": -20.660166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.056043, "energy": 43.834037, "activity_lines": [ 3.181333, 3.175091, 3.357333, 3.529957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }