{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb0ae92d-e155-43a7-8e7c-4f3b7fc064d1", "symbol": "M1HK34", "name": "Mohawk Industries, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 65.463, "architecture_energy": 70.088, "architecture_maturity": 31.471, "architecture_confidence": 81.616, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.53, "rotation_up": 72.4, "upward_expansion": 58.23, "deceleration": 30.78, "rotation_down": 17.33, "downward_expansion": 21.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.915334, 23.203637, 22.054429, 21.867721 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.120001, "trend_reference": 22.259, "distance_from_trend": 0.218384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.101154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125257, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.477185, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01194, "excess_performance": 0.068989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.218384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007683, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125257, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.315375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.104772, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.419601, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01194, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.955556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10, "relative_activity": 0.180343, "balance": 7.955556, "dry_up": 0.405771, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041582, "annualized_volatility": 0.440663, "from_high_reference": -0.035219, "from_low_reference": 0.506667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.259, "fair_value_reference": 24.101154, "structural_low": 18.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016782, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.022857, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.132692, "worst_return": -0.195522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.172766, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.101034, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.120434, "worst_return": -0.278358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.094438, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.312407, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.143139, "worst_return": -0.318606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043676, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097866, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070437, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132643, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149153, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.219999, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 1.4, "trend": 20.272334, "fair_value": 28.638604, "relative_strength": -9.818391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.305086, "energy": 60.966555, "activity_lines": [ 22.568, 21.549818, 20.981095, 21.560839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.190001, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 174.2, "trend": 22.253667, "fair_value": 23.990128, "relative_strength": -14.649413, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.324998, "energy": 55.512979, "activity_lines": [ 22.651334, 21.784364, 21.077667, 21.555118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.66, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 73.05, "trend": 22.206333, "fair_value": 24.006731, "relative_strength": -14.140395, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.263335, "energy": 54.093773, "activity_lines": [ 22.437334, 21.897636, 21.148619, 21.516817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.66, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 65.1, "trend": 22.150333, "fair_value": 24.023333, "relative_strength": -13.530177, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.51208, "energy": 21.983747, "activity_lines": [ 22.138, 21.968727, 21.233286, 21.48157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.16, "volume": 71, "typical_volume": 61.7, "trend": 22.144333, "fair_value": 24.049551, "relative_strength": -8.92028, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.301388, "energy": 27.171631, "activity_lines": [ 22.352, 22.261273, 21.460333, 21.54671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.120001, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 55.45, "trend": 22.259, "fair_value": 24.101154, "relative_strength": 10.477185, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 65.463171, "energy": 70.088401, "activity_lines": [ 23.915334, 23.203637, 22.054429, 21.867721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }