{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb109013-f328-4dbb-bb48-1d819169125f", "symbol": "HYDE", "name": "Invesco Markets II Plc - Invesco Hydrogen Economy Ucits ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.922, "architecture_energy": 22.055, "architecture_maturity": 69.937, "architecture_confidence": 76.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.5, "rotation_up": 14.79, "upward_expansion": 42.58, "deceleration": 87.94, "rotation_down": 45.29, "downward_expansion": 36.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.613, 4.729209, 4.812536, 4.654975 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.7935, "trend_reference": 4.411017, "distance_from_trend": 0.086711, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.275503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.463439, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.19641, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.275376, "excess_performance": 0.192492, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086711, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133622, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.463439, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083428, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.121964, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315772, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.275376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.314968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1967, "relative_activity": 0.353542, "balance": 1.314968, "dry_up": 0.778484, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055604, "annualized_volatility": 0.303322, "from_high_reference": -0.102004, "from_low_reference": 0.725211 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.411017, "fair_value_reference": 3.275503, "structural_low": 3.6445, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.087997, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.07173, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.201424, "worst_return": -0.02543, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.115874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050311, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.27645, "worst_return": -0.044701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.133944, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.100219, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.133944, "worst_return": -0.133944, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.14737, 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.698416, "energy": 62.491939, "activity_lines": [ 5.084133, 5.068064, 4.756386, 4.494802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.019, "volume": 576, "typical_volume": 5819.05, "trend": 4.199133, "fair_value": 3.253433, "relative_strength": 21.650008, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.323119, "energy": 54.307814, "activity_lines": [ 5.047933, 5.072136, 4.8083, 4.551273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.73, "volume": 6787, "typical_volume": 6056.1, "trend": 4.2464, "fair_value": 3.258253, "relative_strength": 15.43232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.080509, "energy": 40.250667, "activity_lines": [ 4.932133, 5.015927, 4.827248, 4.585523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.488, "volume": 10513, "typical_volume": 5868.9, "trend": 4.2871, "fair_value": 3.261083, "relative_strength": 8.146463, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.746609, "energy": 28.407599, "activity_lines": [ 4.7634, 4.915609, 4.8196, 4.60111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.5865, "volume": 1597, "typical_volume": 5641.05, "trend": 4.33065, "fair_value": 3.264952, "relative_strength": 10.084018, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.484279, "energy": 27.655887, "activity_lines": [ 4.6651, 4.841309, 4.819055, 4.620426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.4405, "volume": 3248, "typical_volume": 5506.9, "trend": 4.367833, "fair_value": 3.268506, "relative_strength": 5.978653, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.406808, "energy": 29.994116, "activity_lines": [ 4.5661, 4.746791, 4.8005, 4.627513 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.7935, "volume": 1967, "typical_volume": 5563.7, "trend": 4.411017, "fair_value": 3.275503, "relative_strength": 12.19641, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.921736, "energy": 22.054936, "activity_lines": [ 4.613, 4.729209, 4.812536, 4.654975 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }