{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb1ebb7d-8a84-4d49-ae22-0a3871718f4a", "symbol": "XEQT", "name": "iShares Core Equity ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.463, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.554, "architecture_energy": 55.967, "architecture_maturity": 73.682, "architecture_confidence": 70.443, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.28, "rotation_up": 52.49, "upward_expansion": 82.06, "deceleration": 67.92, "rotation_down": 28.13, "downward_expansion": 8.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.180332, 45.044092, 44.376974, 43.542726 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.099998, "trend_reference": 42.598322, "distance_from_trend": 0.082202, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.108902, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.348997, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122573, "excess_performance": 0.002152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082202, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038878, "read": "Rising" 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38.53214, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.009216, "positive_rate": 0.595745, "directional_follow_through": 0.595745, "median_excess_return": 0.000569, "regime_survival": 0.87234, "best_return": 0.061385, "worst_return": -0.07204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.022872, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.000238, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.105647, "worst_return": -0.047773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.056038, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.000877, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.138713, "worst_return": -0.141319, "sufficient": true }, { 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33.61195, "relative_strength": 0.669155, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.063851, "energy": 84.399056, "activity_lines": [ 45.12712, 44.647524, 43.547113, 42.827037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.48, "volume": 4379800, "typical_volume": 3307515.0, "trend": 42.139601, "fair_value": 33.733004, "relative_strength": -1.061498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.245536, "energy": 60.490536, "activity_lines": [ 44.962245, 44.694389, 43.73193, 42.987238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.564999, "volume": 3274600, "typical_volume": 3143135.0, "trend": 42.278809, "fair_value": 33.853068, "relative_strength": -1.066051, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.766937, "energy": 54.759239, "activity_lines": [ 44.817666, 44.731049, 43.912768, 43.143715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.799999, "volume": 4534300, "typical_volume": 3147990.0, "trend": 42.436521, "fair_value": 33.976911, "relative_strength": -0.063297, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.352175, "energy": 47.661898, "activity_lines": [ 44.790666, 44.779712, 44.094956, 43.306372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.099998, "volume": 2955300, "typical_volume": 3081065.0, "trend": 42.598322, "fair_value": 34.108902, "relative_strength": -0.348997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.553794, "energy": 55.96704, "activity_lines": [ 45.180332, 45.044092, 44.376974, 43.542726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }