{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb2005e8-a985-4158-80b9-8f0024e19cc5", "symbol": "MTU", "name": "Manitou BF SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.63, "architecture_energy": 41.578, "architecture_maturity": 13.903, "architecture_confidence": 93.621, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.08, "rotation_up": 64.13, "upward_expansion": 40.65, "deceleration": 32.57, "rotation_down": 22.42, "downward_expansion": 24.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.368, 20.629657, 20.47849, 20.501785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.1, "trend_reference": 20.555457, "distance_from_trend": 0.123789, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.53719, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18236, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.42263, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038202, "excess_performance": -0.015109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.123789, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027396, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.18236, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145768, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.094226, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082752, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038202, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.967723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147087, "relative_activity": 2.829483, "balance": 1.967723, "dry_up": 1.426457, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050299, "annualized_volatility": 0.403144, "from_high_reference": -0.051335, "from_low_reference": 0.366864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.555457, "fair_value_reference": 19.53719, "structural_low": 17.76, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.053463, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.029789, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.148148, "worst_return": -0.06142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.087513, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.067799, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.332665, "worst_return": -0.264331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.066005, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.07366, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.167335, "worst_return": -0.375879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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35.133501, "activity_lines": [ 19.867408, 20.091717, 20.278483, 20.400448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.0, "volume": 58201, "typical_volume": 63598.85, "trend": 20.292123, "fair_value": 19.580879, "relative_strength": -6.527701, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.61679, "energy": 48.866303, "activity_lines": [ 19.525827, 19.882195, 20.13318, 20.315709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.540001, "volume": 37199, "typical_volume": 59186.9, "trend": 20.30679, "fair_value": 19.563734, "relative_strength": -3.512196, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.030726, "energy": 57.815782, "activity_lines": [ 19.468198, 19.781697, 20.061448, 20.267185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.379999, "volume": 27876, "typical_volume": 55840.35, "trend": 20.320123, "fair_value": 19.542146, "relative_strength": -4.340209, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.186355, "energy": 55.28259, "activity_lines": [ 19.386667, 19.666263, 19.993573, 20.207392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 84448, "typical_volume": 49742.45, "trend": 20.41679, "fair_value": 19.536071, "relative_strength": 7.709993, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.665661, "energy": 5.606252, "activity_lines": [ 20.317334, 20.085872, 20.200794, 20.328675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.1, "volume": 147087, "typical_volume": 51983.7, "trend": 20.555457, "fair_value": 19.53719, "relative_strength": 9.42263, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.630468, "energy": 41.577733, "activity_lines": [ 21.368, 20.629657, 20.47849, 20.501785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }