{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bb215768-75e5-4dc4-95c3-abbc27926fd4", "symbol": "ONYX", "name": "Onyx Touristiki Societe Anonyme", "exchange": "ATH", "country": "GR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "GD.AT", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.819, "architecture_energy": 12.3, "architecture_maturity": 30.122, "architecture_confidence": 45.275, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.81, "rotation_up": 47.09, "upward_expansion": 33.93, "deceleration": 34.52, "rotation_down": 26.38, "downward_expansion": 24.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.509067, 1.494873, 1.502762, 1.491731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.53, "trend_reference": 1.491933, "distance_from_trend": 0.025515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.36475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.159147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.022364, "excess_performance": -0.180919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121084, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.291591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.381154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113512, "relative_activity": 0.505694, "balance": 0.381154, "dry_up": 0.803554, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043338, "annualized_volatility": 0.281174, "from_high_reference": -0.390438, "from_low_reference": 0.150376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.491933, "fair_value_reference": 1.36475, "structural_low": 1.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023066, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.040794, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.402597, "worst_return": -0.252336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.266867, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.171485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.904762, "worst_return": -0.371028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.306833, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.17012, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.922078, "worst_return": -0.308411, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.328139, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025587, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.328139, "worst_return": 0.328139, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.17316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.496644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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1.492686, 1.497568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.438, "volume": 177562, "typical_volume": 215668.55, "trend": 1.5346, "fair_value": 1.35349, "relative_strength": -34.05625, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.375787, "energy": 38.010648, "activity_lines": [ 1.457733, 1.474364, 1.489281, 1.489976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.53, "volume": 223798, "typical_volume": 218681.6, "trend": 1.514267, "fair_value": 1.357208, "relative_strength": -30.298749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.285638, "energy": 17.487036, "activity_lines": [ 1.478267, 1.480873, 1.494648, 1.48968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1.52, "volume": 206615, "typical_volume": 224209.75, "trend": 1.503933, "fair_value": 1.361032, "relative_strength": -30.16658, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.797041, "energy": 9.735397, "activity_lines": [ 1.493333, 1.486545, 1.498538, 1.490049 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1.53, "volume": 113512, "typical_volume": 224467.6, "trend": 1.491933, "fair_value": 1.36475, "relative_strength": -29.159147, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.818645, "energy": 12.30007, "activity_lines": [ 1.509067, 1.494873, 1.502762, 1.491731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }